U.S. Offers Assurances to Soften Haitian Military : Caribbean: Sources say army won’t be cut back if Aristide returns. Apparent shift is aimed at reducing resistance to restoration of the exiled president.

The United States is trying to weaken Haitian military resistance to the restoration of exiled President Jean-Bertrand Aristide with assurances that the army will not be seriously cut back nor will most senior officers be removed, diplomats and other sources here and in Washington say.

This is a seeming shift from the recent American policy of seeking a substantial reduction in the 7,000-member army, its separation from the police and a total restructuring of both institutions.

“We still want to professionalize the military, and we will insist on a separate police,” one U.S. official said, “but we now think that if we can convince the military it won’t be destroyed and the soldiers won’t be thrown out of work they might not follow Cedras and the others.”

He was talking about the exceptions to the new approach: Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras, the regime’s military strongman; Gen. Philippe Biamby, the army chief of staff; and Lt. Col. Michel-Joseph Francois, Haitian police commander. These men also led the 1991 coup that drove Aristide, Haiti’s first democratically elected president, from office.

Their resignations and departures are among demands made by the United States and the United Nations for ending the economic and political embargo strangling Haiti.

Haitian military leaders have effectively used fears about possible job losses and other punishments to maintain solidarity in their force. But some officials here said the seeming shift in tone and policy on this topic is designed to weaken the hold of senior officers; one diplomat in Haiti called it the “carrot of the carrot and stick” approach.

“One day (the Americans) are issuing menacing statements about invasions, and the next day the military is told they don’t have to worry if they cooperate,” the diplomat said. Another official agreed, but noted that “of course, this (offer) is not open-ended, and all bets are off if the military resists” in the event the United States takes military action to restore Aristide.

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The comments about the military here also would seem, potentially, to constrain American policy here, particularly in view of past assessments by senior U.S. officials in Washington and Haiti that they had been unable to find a senior or even mid-level Haitian officer who could be trusted to lead a restructured army. Speaking of what the army might expect after Aristide’s restoration, one official said that other than forcing a few transfers, “the rest can stay. That is all that the U.N. resolution calls for.”

He was referring to a May 6 resolution of the U.N. Security Council demanding that the three top officers resign and leave Haiti in order to restore Aristide, whom they overthrew in a coup Sept. 30, 1991. While it is true that the resolution discussed just those three officers and previous agreements had offered amnesty to the military, U.S. policy was to go beyond that narrow view. U.S. officials since have said they would seek a reduction and restructuring of the army, including removal of officers involved in criminal acts and human rights violations.

Besides, said one diplomat, referring to a failed agreement in July to restore Aristide, the Governors Island accord “was abrogated by Cedras. We certainly don’t have to live by the provisions designed to help out the man who reneged.”

Whatever the interpretation, most officials and sources interviewed shared the view that an attempt had to be made to create problems for Cedras inside the military. The Americans “want to create as much dissatisfaction and dissension as possible in the ranks,” one diplomat said. “That’s what the ship is for.”

He was discussing a ship-borne radio station, authorized by President Clinton, to broadcast to Haiti. “Well,” said an official, “you’re right. The point of much of the broadcast will be to urge the troops to get rid of Cedras, Biamby and Francois and to assure them they will be safe and have jobs afterward.”

Even as these sources were speaking, many Haitians were speculating that a split was developing in the army and at the highest levels. The furor began Tuesday when Evans Francois, elder brother of the police commander, called a radio station here from the Dominican Republic, demanding that Cedras resign and stating that Michel Francois “is ready to make concessions to save the nation.”

Michel Francois reacted overnight with a statement rejecting his brother’s position and calling the demand for Cedras’ resignation “offensive and inopportune.”

Diplomats and Haitian analysts split in their view as to the significance of this development. “It is serious,” one Haitian political expert said. “We know that Michel has been uncomfortable with Cedras and Biamby for a long time.”

“I don’t think it means anything other than Evans is frightened,” another source said. “Anyway, you know that Evans and Michel had a falling out over Governors Island and (Evans) has been out of the country most of the time since.”

Even as this situation was developing, there were renewed efforts to persuade Cedras to leave. This is being done with promises that he would lead a comfortable life in exile. A senior Administration official in Washington said he would find it “fine” if another nation offered exile to Cedras; the United States would even help him leave.

“We’re not negotiating anything” because the Administration doesn’t want to send “mixed signals” to either Cedras or to Aristide supporters, the official said. But when asked if any other nation was working on exile arrangements with the general, the source answered: “I can’t say what anyone else might do. But if Cedras said he wanted to leave and wanted safe passage, what do you think we’d do? We’d ask: ‘Do you need a plane? How can we help?’ And we’d say: ‘Have a nice life.’ ”

In Port-au-Prince, diplomats from countries likely to accept Cedras refused to comment, but some said privately that there have been talks about the general’s going to France or Spain.

While the American official’s comments reflected previous agreements reached between Aristide and Cedras--including amnesty in exchange for Cedras’ resignation and departure--some Haitian analysts and diplomats saw the comments as exactly what the official claimed to be trying to avoid--sending mixed signals.

“How do you convince someone as determined and hardheaded as Cedras that he should leave now, if at the same time you’re telling him he will be flown out in comfort and allowed to keep his money and live in luxury in Paris?” this source asked. “Of course he’ll stay until they come and take him away. What they should tell him is that he has X number of days to resign and get out and that if he’s still here when the troops come, he goes to jail. He might understand that.”

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Freed reported from Port-au-Prince and McManus from Washington.