Mideast Peace Effort Focus Shifts From Syria to Jordan : Diplomacy: Israel revives talks with King Hussein’s government. Damascus no longer sets pattern for Arabs.

The focus of the Middle East peace process is quietly shifting from Syria to Jordan as mediation between Israel and Syria appears to be slowing.

Over the last two weeks, Jordan and Israel have revived their talks, reportedly after a secret meeting between Jordan’s King Hussein and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in late May.

Hussein is expected in Washington on Monday and Tuesday to see President Clinton and Secretary of State Warren Christopher as Jordan and Israel prepare for their first-ever public talks in the Middle East in the two countries’ Red Sea ports of Aqaba and Eilat.

The Jordan-Israeli track, which had been dormant in deference to Christopher’s shuttle diplomacy between Syria and Israel, is now going ahead in virtual defiance of Syria.

No longer will Syrian President Hafez Assad be able to establish the framework for negotiations between Israel and the three remaining front-line states--Syria, Jordan and Lebanon--that have not negotiated peace agreements with Israel, regional analysts said.

Instead, they said, Jordan’s mediation will at least run parallel to the Syrian-Israeli talks and could even jump ahead of them.

Christopher has deferred a visit to Damascus and Jerusalem planned for next week. “We no longer have high hopes for anything imminent on Syria,” an Administration official admitted.

Some Israelis and Syrians have speculated that a much-anticipated breakthrough will not happen this year, as President Clinton had predicted in January after talks with Assad in Geneva.

“Unless the United States adopts the role of full partner in the peace process it launched and decides to remove the obstacles placed by the main saboteur of the process, namely Israel, it and other sponsors of the peace process should not expect to see peace in the Middle East in the next few months or even this year,” al-Baath, an official Syrian newspaper, reported Thursday.

In Israel on Friday, Maj. Gen. Amnon Shahak, a key Rabin adviser and peace negotiator, told the Labor Party newspaper, Davar, “I don’t believe that it will be possible this year to complete the negotiations with the Syrians, as they will be long and complex.”

A senior U.S. official cautioned against making too much of the gyrations of the Middle East peace process. “We’re in the process of making a movie, and what you’re seeing is only one frame,” he said.

An Israeli official noted that former Secretary of State James A. Baker III traveled to the region 14 times before putting together an agreement for the 1991 Madrid peace conference, which launched the current process. Reflecting growing concerns, however, the same official warned that diplomacy is often overtaken by events in the volatile region.

“The problem is that you always have small windows of opportunity,” he said. “If you don’t take the opportunity when the time is ripe, then you never know what will happen tomorrow--maybe a North Korea to divert international attention or a terrorist attack that shakes down this whole region.

“This is taking a slower path than we had hoped, and if that continues, the process could get stuck,” he added. “And no transformation from war to peace can be complete without Syria.”

In contrast, the focus of Jordan-Israeli talks is expected to be smoother and potentially faster because it centers on bilateral issues rather than the broader effort to end the general Arab refusal to establish relations with Israel.

Although “economic cooperation” is the stated agenda for the coming talks in Eilat and Aqaba, discussions will also cover security, borders and other peace treaty issues. Haaretz, a prominent Israeli paper, said Jordan had effectively become a “strategic partner.”

Jordan’s sudden prominence appeared to surprise Syria, which reacted by canceling talks with Jordan. Commentators in the government-controlled news media launched strong and repeated denunciations of the kingdom.

Some regional analysts are speculating that Jordan may sign a peace treaty with Israel before Syria does. One of the breakthroughs at the secret Rabin-Hussein meeting was the decision to begin implementing major elements of a draft peace agreement before it is formally concluded and signed, according to Israeli officials.

Israel now appears confident that the Jordan track will move ahead. “The problems between us and the Jordanians are minimal compared to those between us and the others involved in the conflict,” Shahak said pointedly.

Shahak’s comments and the Jordanian track itself are both being widely interpreted as sending signals to Syria that Rabin will not be pushed into concessions because he fears a stalemate. Rabin is effectively putting Assad on notice that he will be the loser if the recent momentum is lost, a senior Israeli official said.

Rabin is not under pressure to move on the Syria track, especially since progress would probably involve giving up at least some territorial claim on the strategic Golan Heights overlooking northern Israel, a step that would be highly controversial at home.

At the same time, Syrian officials said that they are under no pressure to move first or fast.

“We’re not negotiating for just a piece of property but to change the face of the entire Middle East, between all Arabs and Israel, not just Syria. So there’s a different mentality,” a senior Syrian official said. “We’ve been in the Middle East for more than 5,000 years. Because we want this peace to last throughout future generations, we have to move carefully to avoid making mistakes.”

Wright reported from Washington and Parks from Jerusalem.