Japan--Please Wait Till the Fall

Japan’s new odd couple, the Socialists and the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, is a puzzle both inside and outside the country. If there is any consensus on this bizarre new coalition government, it is that confusion reigns in Tokyo as the first Socialist since 1947 takes over as prime minister.

Tomiichi Murayama, the new prime minister, is not a strong figure. Indeed, some speculate that he got the job precisely because his government would be unstable and might fall, thus precipitating an election before the drawing of new, more representative districts later this year. A snap election, before the electoral reform is in place, would be a throwback to the antediluvian past. Murayama’s predecessor, Tsutumu Hata, resigned Saturday before a scheduled no-confidence vote in Parliament; Hata, patriotically, acted to avoid an early national election.

Murayama’s ascension out of nowhere is being interpreted by some as a cynical move by the LDP to align with its longtime foe, the left-leaning Socialists, to restore itself to power after being ousted last year. Murayama’s new Cabinet is dominated by LDP figures.

Once again political chaos engulfs Japan and portends continued policy paralysis as the nation faces dicey U.S-Japan trade talks, stalled efforts to deregulate the Japanese economy and a volatile North Korea situation. Murayama has no policy-making, international or even Cabinet experience. His Socialist Party is known as protectionist, isolationist and an avowed opponent of sanctions against North Korea.

Let’s hope those policies won’t be in evidence when Murayama represents Japan at next week’s meeting of the leading seven industrial nations in Naples. He is scheduled to meet with President Clinton before the gathering to discuss the North Korea issue and U.S.-Japan trade. The Socialists have opposed various Washington-backed proposals for change in Japan’s economic policies.

Murayama would do much to mitigate his weak domestic and international standing by not pressing for any policy reversals. He has been known to bend with the political winds; can he hold on and spare Tokyo a premature election? It would be better for Japan, and for the West, if the next election followed the historic electoral reforms in the fall. Only then might Japan realize some genuine political realignment and thus stability.