The Truth About Colosio’s Murder? : Credibility gap dogs Mexican government

The Mexican government’s formal investigation into the assassination of Luis Donaldo Colosio, at the time of his death the leading candidate to be Mexico’s next president, has concluded that he was the victim of a lone gunman and not a conspiracy. But a lot of people just don’t believe that.

That poses a profound challenge for outgoing President Carlos Salinas de Gortari--to overcome the deep cynicism many Mexicans have about their government and, more specifically, about the powerful Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which has virtually controlled the government for the last six decades. That cynicism is reflected in polls indicating most Mexicans believe they will never know the truth about Colosio’s murder.

Ironically, Colosio was the PRI’s candidate in the Aug. 21 presidential election. That made him the front runner, in that PRI members traditionally have used government power--and electoral fraud when needed--to push their candidate. Yet Colosio was also considered a reformer, handpicked by Salinas to follow through on the political and economic reforms of the last five years.

So when Colosio was shot to death by Mario Aburto Martinez, 23, at a campaign rally in Tijuana, the conspiracy theories bloomed almost immediately. Some blamed a conservative PRI faction that resented Salinas’ efforts to rein in their power and perks. Others focused on Mexico’s increasingly powerful drug lords. Still others suspected leftist guerrillas.

Tuesday, however, the special prosecutor charged with investigating the killing issued a formal statement concluding that Aburto, a former U.S. resident given to rambling writings about odd political beliefs, was the lone gunman and the only person involved.

Conspiracy theorists may find more grist in whatever comes out in Aburto’s trial. The United States’ sad experience with the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, Sen. Robert F. Kennedy and the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. illustrates how conspiracy theories never die for lack of true believers.

Salinas must try to win over those sensible but skeptical Mexicans who want to believe their government but need much more convincing. For starters, he could go far in that direction if he followed through energetically on his efforts to guarantee an open and honest election next month. Some impressive steps have already been taken, including the development of new high-tech voter cards and election rolls. But the real proof will come when the votes are cast and counted.

A clean election with a widely accepted outcome will be evidence that the reforms Salinas began, and Colosio vowed to continue, have begun to take on a life of their own.