Haiti Military May Not Resist if U.S. Invades

The U.S. military could hardly ask for an easier target.

If the United States intervenes in Haiti, as President Clinton has been threatening for several months, U.S. troops are unlikely to encounter any fierce opposition. In fact, there may be no opposition at all, military strategists say.

Haiti has virtually no air force or navy, defense experts say, and the Haitian army--though 7,400 strong on paper--is poorly equipped and assigned to a variety of side jobs, such as firefighting.

Its combat force consists of only three infantry companies and one heavy-weapons company, and most of its equipment is old and badly maintained. Only a handful of its 11 armored personnel carriers work, for example.

Moreover, Haitian military sources say that their contingency plans in the event of a U.S. invasion call for most of the island nation’s troops to “evaporate”--that is, to take off their uniforms and blend in with the public rather than put up a fight.

The few Haitian officers and enlisted men who do remain in uniform will stay in their barracks and offer no resistance, hoping to avoid being singled out for retribution by the invading U.S. forces or by Haitian civilians looking for scapegoats.

One officer said Haitian army commanders hope that by offering no resistance, they will be able to avoid large-scale arrests during the expected U.S. occupation of the country and will be able to dissuade American officials from trying to destroy the Haitian military as an institution.

“They all think that the Americans ultimately will have to turn to (the Haitian army) to maintain order,” a foreign analyst said. “They think the Americans won’t have the stomach to shoot . . . civilians. So (eventually they will have to) ask the Haitian army to step in” to restore order.

That does not mean that the invading U.S. forces can be assured of avoiding casualties.

Military experts warn that, as in any such situation, there is likely to be danger from snipers and gangs of thugs.

And, for all the expected acceptance of U.S. military authority, there still are a few groups--some connected with the current Haitian strongman, Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras, and the army--that have vowed to mount some resistance.

Cedras himself, interviewed on CNN in the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince over the weekend, continues to take a hard line, saying that military preparations are being made to defend the country.

“If you intervene, it will mean bloodshed on both sides. . . . Every (military) barrack is filling up with young people who are fighting to sign up and get training because they know they must defend their country,” he said.

“It’s not a matter of Gen. Cedras. It’s not a matter of (ousted President Jean-Bertrand) Aristide. The matter is to defend Haiti.”

Intelligence officers say the Haitian military has distributed at least 1,000 rifles to its civilian allies over the last two months, including Galil assault rifles and other automatic weapons.

One self-appointed militia, headed by Romeo Aloun, a U.S. citizen who is the son of a prominent Haitian businessman, has between 35 and 50 heavily armed followers who have been setting up nighttime roadblocks and imposing their own form of security at the airport.

There also is some uncertainty in Haiti about which forces would deal with quelling looting and protecting private property during an invasion. Presumably U.S. troops would help keep order, but they may be busy with their broader mission.

One reason that U.S. planners are so confident of little resistance is that the Haitians historically have been nonviolent and friendly to foreigners, especially Americans. The infamous Tontons Macoutes hit squad was disarmed years ago.

One senior U.S. military planner--a three-star general--told reporters earlier this year that even now during visits to Port-au-Prince he goes jogging unaccompanied by security guards, occasionally even passing Haitian military headquarters.

Moreover, Haiti’s few militiamen and other potential resistance groups do not have rocket-propelled grenades and other more destructive weapons such as their counterparts in Somalia had. Private arms caches are thought to be very limited.

In any case, U.S. officials are planning to take a firm stance from the start to discourage resistance or sniping. “We will be arriving in force, ready and willing to shoot,” a U.S. official who has been involved in the planning said.

“We don’t expect any resistance, and we expect we won’t have to do anything but put locks on the gates to keep them from running away,” one military expert said. But, he added, “No one will be taking any chances.”

After U.S. troops have secured the Haitian capital and imposed a curfew, they are expected to spread out and control the rest of the country. Within 24 hours, they will take over other important cities such as Cap-Haitien, Gonaives, Jacmel, Jeremie and Hinche.

Pentagon planners say the real problem is likely to come after the island is “secure” and that order will have to be maintained during the several months required to help Aristide form a new government and restore the island’s economy.

Haiti: An Invasion Blueprint

U.S. strategists say the Battle of Haiti, if there is one, would be over in a scant eight hours to two days. Although U.S. troops would sustain some casualties in the fray--or from sniper fire after the ground fighting ended--the number of killed or wounded would probably be small. How an invasion might take place, according to military analysts:

INVASION FORCE: A total of about 15,000 soldiers and Marines is predicted. They would land from ships and helicopters or by parachute from C-141 and C-130 transports.

THE OPERATION

PHASE ONE: The night before the actual invasion, U.S. special forces teams--including Army Rangers, special operations forces and Navy SEALs--would land under cover of darkness at the twomajor cities of Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien and secure the docks, the airports and the U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince. They also would take control of a half a dozen major roads--such as Highway 102 to the Dominican Republic and routes 100 and 300. And they may capture Ile de la Gonave, a small island just off Port-au-Prince.

PHASE TWO: Just before dawn, an initial force of 2,000 Marines from the Marine expeditionary unit aboard the helicopter carrier Wasp would come ashore in landing craft, both to help secure Port-au-Prince and to evacuate any Americans who may be in danger. Navy or Air Force planes could be called upon to provide close air support for Army and Marine ground troops, but most likely they would not be needed. There is little to bomb in Haiti, and the risk of civilian deaths from bombing runs is high.

PHASE THREE: A few minutes later--or hours, if the situation warrants--elements of the 82nd and 101st airborne divisions would come ashore or parachute in to mop up after the Marines. The soldiers would set up staging areas at Port-au-Prince, Cap-Haitien and, possibly, Port-de-Paix on the island’s north coast. They then would swarm through Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien and deal with any guerrilla groups or snipers who have not surrendered.

THE REBEL LEADERS

It is not clear whether U.S. troops would try to capture Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras and other leaders. Finding such targets in a country such as Haiti often is very difficult and risks making martyrs of them, as was the case with Panamanian Gen. Manuel A. Noriega, who eluded U.S. troops for days after the U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989. Instead, Washington may let Cedras and his aids flee to the Dominican Republic or perhaps another country.

WHAT U.S. TROOPS WOULD FACE

Haiti air force and navy are very small, and the Haitian army is poorly equipped and spread thin. Most of its equipment is old and badly maintained.

ARMY

Soldiers: 7,400 active-duty Haitian troops and officers Equipment 11 armored personnel carriers 9 towed artillery pieces 37 mortars 20 antitank guns 30 recoilless rifles 16 air-defense guns AIR FORCE Airmen: 150 active-duty airmen and officers Aircraft: 2 combat aircraft, 4 transport aircraft, 9 training aircraft NAVY Sailors: 250 active-duty sailors and officers Ships: 1 patrol craft plus 3 miscellaneous small boats, 1 shore base (Port-au-Prince) AFTER NATION IS SECURED

Pentagon planners say the real problem would likely come during the several months when an international force would have to maintain order as President Jean-Bertrand Aristide tries to form a new government. U.S. forces would be joined by a multinational peacekeeping force operating under U.N. auspices that would swell the total force to about 30,000 troops. The U.S. troops would gradually withdraw, dropping to no more than a few thousand by the end of the first month. U.S. and U.N. troops almost certainly would have to remain on the island for months, both to help provide security and to train the new government.

TIME ESTIMATES

* Invasion: Between eight hours and two days.

* Restoring government: Two months to a year.

Sources: This graphic was compiled by Los Angeles Times reporter Art Pine with the help of Pentagon officials; Don M. Snider of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Robert W. Gaskin, a former Pentagon planner now with Business Executives for National Security.