Home Sales, Resales Projected to Rise 17.2% Locally This Year

Orange County’s housing market will be among the most improved in the state this year, with the number of sales and resales rising 17.2%, according to projections released Thursday.

Across California, total transactions are predicted to increase 7.5% to 378,000 this year--the first annual increase since 1989, according to TRW Redi Property Data in Riverside.

“It’s not really great news, . . . but it’s an improvement,” said Nima Nattagh, a TRW analyst. “And if you look at the state, Orange County is doing really well.”

The housing market expected to show the biggest improvement is the Salinas-Monterey metropolitan area, where sales and resales are expected to jump more than 32% to 4,474 units. Projected to lead in total number of transactions is the Los Angeles-Long Beach area, with a 13.2% increase to 81,763 units.

Orange County is ranked fifth, with 35,952 transactions projected.

“People look at Orange County and Los Angeles as part of the same economic structure, but we can see that home sales are doing very well in Orange County, while Los Angeles County is still lagging,” Nattagh said.

Nattagh said he does not expect the year’s totals to vary much from the projections, even if interest rates go up, which generally dampens home sales.

The figures released Thursday are based on the premise that the pace of home sales for the year so far will continue through December. The study ranks homes sales in the state’s 23 metropolitan areas, of which Orange County is one, Nattagh said.

Home Sales Turn Upward

Sales of new and existing homes in California are projected to increase 7.5% for 1994, the first improvement since 1989. Sales of new homes are expected to increase by 3.5%.

1989

All homes: 566,324

New homes: 112,229 1990

All homes: 458,728

New homes: 86,719 1991

All homes: 381,921

New homes: 58,868 1992

All homes: 358,959

New homes: 54,624 1993

All homes: 351,633

New homes: 56,436 1994*

All homes: 378,168

New homes: 58,433 * Projected

Regional Changes

Projections for 1994 indicate that Orange County will rank among the top five regions in the state in home sales improvement. Ranking by percentage increase in units sold:

Sales Pct. change Region All homes New homes All homes New homes 1. Salinas-Seaside-Monterey 4,474 834 32.1% 133.6% 2. San Jose 20,452 2,240 23.5 29.3 3. Santa Cruz 3,356 122 19.8 17.3 4. Santa Barbara-Santa 4,188 306 19.2 13.3 Maria-Lompoc 5. Orange County 35,952 5,930 17.2 9.0 6. San Francisco 18,770 904 16.0 41.0 7. Chico 3,058 262 14.1 31.0 8. San Diego 30,836 4,756 13.4 7.7 9. Los Angeles-Long Beach 81,763 4,776 13.2 -18.3 10. Riverside-San Bernardino 47,243 11,049 12.1 0.9

Source: TRW; Researched by JANICE L. JONES/Los Angeles Times