Chinese Maneuver to Succeed Ailing Leader : Asia: As Deng Xiaoping turns 90, nation faces uncertain future. Jiang Zemin seen as successor, but field is crowded.

In the 45 years since the creation of the People’s Republic of China, only two men have held undisputed power over this vast land of 1.2 billion people.

Communist China’s founder, Mao Tse-tung, died in 1976. His ultimate successor at the helm, Deng Xiaoping, frail and no longer capable of speaking in public, turns 90 years old today.

Despite several years of rumors that he is dead or dying, Deng stubbornly clings to life. Several unofficial reports have him celebrating his 90th birthday in the company of other senior leaders at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, 100 miles east of Beijing.

Officially, Deng’s birthday has been noted by the release of his collected works in several languages and the sale of bronze plaques of the 5-foot, 2-inch leader in government bookstores. A new eight-volume work, “Deng Xiaoping: A Great Man and His Century,” was released earlier this month by the People’s Liberation Army Cultural Publishing House.

Politically, however, China has already entered into what Columbia University scholar Andrew Nathan has called “pre post-Deng maneuvering.” The behind-the-scenes battle for succession was accelerated by Deng’s last public appearance in February, when the Chinese leader seemed mentally lost and confused as he clung to the arm of one of his daughters at a Shanghai hotel reception.

Deng’s birthday has produced little public fanfare in the capital, but his advanced age has produced the inevitable comparison with Mao.

“Deng is not as great as Mao,” said a 20-year-old university student who identified himself only as Liu. “Mao was the Great Helmsman. Deng is like a paternalistic powerful boss of a multinational corporation. He cannot give people belief, but he knows how to do things and deal with people. These are the qualities of the entrepreneur.”

Others face the post-Deng era with apprehension.

“The longer he lives, the more we will be in balance,” said Xioa Jin, 31. “No society is totally stable. He is the one who holds the scale. . . . After his death, the possibility of instability is 50%. Hard to say who will replace him. China is a very strange country because it is impossible to predict what happens tomorrow.”

Most China watchers name President and Communist Party General Secretary Jiang Zemin as Deng’s logical successor. Jiang, 68, who also holds the important position of chairman of the Central Military Commission, has spent the past several years attempting to consolidate his position by developing close relationships in the all-important Chinese military Establishment.

In his effort to woo the military, Jiang has traveled frequently to key army posts and recently promoted 19 new generals, presumably loyal to him. In May, he made a strong statement in support of the army’s controversial role in crushing the 1989 democracy movement that is certain to please hard-line factions of the military.

“I think that Jiang Zemin is much better positioned than he was a few years ago,” said Michael D. Swaine, a RAND Corp. expert on the Chinese military. “Also, many of the senior officers simply don’t see a good alternative.”

Jiang also is said to be Deng’s personal choice. But in Chinese history that is not always a blessing.

In this regard, Jiang suffers from what some describe as the “Hua Guofeng syndrome.”

Hua was Chairman Mao’s handpicked successor. “With you in charge, I’m at ease,” Mao reportedly said to Hua.

But the hapless Hua lasted less than two years after his patron’s death before fading into obscurity as Deng took power, by some recent accounts through a military-backed coup d’etat .

Likewise, in 1986 Deng told foreign visitors that his chosen successors were reform-minded Communist Party leaders Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang. “If the sky falls, they will hold it up,” Deng was quoted as saying.

But Hu, then the party general secretary, was forced out in 1987; Zhao, hero of the liberal economic reformers and Hu’s successor as general secretary, was stripped of his duties after the 1989 protests.

Waiting in the wings for Jiang to fail are a host of pretenders, including hard-line Chinese Premier Li Peng, 66. Among oft-mentioned candidates are economic reformer Zhu Rongji, 66, and powerful military figure Yang Shangkun, 86, one of the last living veterans of the “Long March” that led to Communist control of the entire mainland in 1949.

A favorite dark horse is Qiao Shi, 70, chairman of the National People’s Congress. Qiao’s background as head of the secret police and overseas intelligence makes him a possible compromise candidate, favorable to the military.

Even Zhao, 75, the party reformer who was placed under virtual house arrest following the 1989 crackdown on Tian An Men Square, is not out of the picture. Zhao recently toured Sichuan, Deng’s home province, and has been seen increasingly in public.

Commented one Western diplomat in Beijing recently: “For a man who was supposed to be a political corpse, Zhao Ziyang is still very much alive.”

UCLA Prof. Richard Baum, author of a political biography of Deng, predicts that “elder statesmen” such as Yang Shangkun, Qiao Shi or Wan Li, 77, will play a key role in determining the post-Deng ruling order. Formerly head of the National People’s Congress, Wan now holds only ceremonial positions.

” . . . ‘Elder statesmen’ like Yang, Qiao and Wan are likely to play key roles in the new lineup,” Baum said. “As to who their likely successors would be . . . all I can say is that Jiang Zemin and Li Peng are not likely to remain in office for more than 12 months after Deng dies.”