Informed Opinions on Today’s Topics : Will Mexico’s Election Make a Difference?

Bringing to an end nearly a year of political confusion, the Mexican elections concluded Monday with the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) retaining the power it has claimed since 1929. PRI candidate Ernesto Zedillo won the presidency with 50.03% of the vote.

Cynical observers, sensing fraud, have staged protests in Mexico City over the manner in which the elections were held.

In addition, Zedillo’s margin of victory, represents one of the lowest levels of support for any PRI president since the party’s inception, which brings into question the level of confidence that the new administration enjoys from both the Mexican people and North American industries.

What’s in store for Mexico’s future and how will we be affected?

Robert Shubb, president of King Travel in Canoga Park

“(The elections) have only affected our business in the fact that there were a lot of Mexican citizens who went back to Mexico to vote. There are a lot of business people in Canoga Park and, as a result, there are several large business families. We had one whole family of 15 going to Guadalajara to cast their votes. People not familiar with traveling in Mexico always ask what the political situation is like down there.

“All the reports we’ve received from the Mexican Travel Bureau and other agencies indicate that things are safe. Chiapas is calm and the protest groups meeting in Mexico City have all been meeting quietly and organizing without violence. In general, travel to the resort areas of Mexico has been pretty substantial this summer.”

Marc Tucker, financial consultant at Baraban Securities in Woodland Hills

“Selective Mexican issues have phenomenal possibilities. The most widely known, financially, is the TelMex telephone company, which recently traded very well at the New York Stock Exchange. As the Mexican infrastructure is developed, TelMex is going to expand quite dramatically. From an investment point of view, TelMex today is what AT&T; was in the 1950s. Only two out of 10 people own phones now, but that’s going to change significantly.

“Infrastructure development allows Mexico to have a substantial future over time. The economy is going to expand nicely as the buying power of the Mexican people improves. I think the PRI scenario was best in the elections. With the PRI still in power and with their plans to improve the economy, things are looking good for Mexico as long as those plans are successful.

“However, it doesn’t matter who is in power as long as they focus on improving the lifestyle in Mexico and on improving the economy.”

David Myhre, visiting research fellow at the Center for US-American Studies at UC San Diego

“The main thing that we should be looking at is whether the election means the furthering of the democratization process.

“Organization of the party should be much more in terms of grass roots, in particular with the selection of candidates. . . . It’s important to provide renewed emphasis on the election. It’s clear there were many problems in rural areas and not just irregularities but pressure voting . . .

“It means more of the same continuation of the present liberalizing of the Mexican economy in terms of GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) and NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) . . .

“However, the economic programs have been slow to bring benefits to people who are impoverished in Mexico. There definitely has to be something done, but not pushing Mexico to go too fast and too hard.”