Protestant Extremists May Be Key to Ulster Peace : Europe: Fearful that the IRA got concessions for its Northern Ireland truce, militants could continue violence.

As residents of Northern Ireland enjoyed the first day of an Irish Republican Army cease-fire Thursday, attention began to focus on Protestant extremist forces who have threatened to torpedo peace efforts in the province by accelerating their own campaign of violence.

Wednesday’s IRA announcement of a “complete cessation” of violence constituted the biggest single step toward peace in the beleaguered region since the latest round of unrest began 25 years ago.

It also left Protestant extremist groups as the lone remaining elements with a potential to continue a sustained campaign of violence in the province, also known as Ulster.

In each of the past three years, more people have been killed in Ulster by outlawed Protestant paramilitary groups than by the IRA. So far this year, of 55 deaths attributed to the sectarian warfare, 32 have been carried out by Protestant groups, according to British government figures.

Convinced that the IRA gained important, secret concessions from the British and Irish governments in return for their cease-fire, these Protestant extremists believe their interests may be served by trying to scuttle the peace process.

One of these groups, the Ulster Volunteer Force, shot a 37-year-old Catholic man in Northern Ireland within hours of the IRA’s announcement. And Thursday night, a gunman killed a 22-year-old Catholic in Belfast. They were the latest victims in a conflict that has claimed more than 3,000 lives.

Those familiar with these Protestant extremist groups believe their ability to carry out threats of stepped-up violence are largely tied to the reaction of Ulster’s Protestant population, which remains confused and uncertain in the wake of recent events.

“It will take a few days for these views to shake out,” said David McKittrick, one of the most respected analysts on Ulster affairs, who writes for the London daily Independent. “People in that community are fairly anxious and tense. If the British government comes out with a string of concessions to (the IRA) immediately, it could influence the mood.”

Initially, at least, moderate Protestant political leaders appear to be willing to offer cautious support for the move toward the peace table while radicals, such as Ian Paisley, have denounced it as a plot.

One influential Protestant leader, Belfast Mayor Hugh Smyth, appealed Thursday for moderation. “I would simply ask the (Protestant) paramilitaries to play it calm, to examine the (IRA) statement and, if they are assured there’s been no sellout, then I hope they can take the next step and perhaps announce their own cease-fire,” Symth said.

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With the majority of the massive government security force in Northern Ireland now free from the task of tracking the IRA, militant Protestant groups are expected to come under increased pressure. To survive, they would require the active sympathy of the Protestant community.

As a sign of the changing times, roadblocks long operated by security forces in the IRA heartland of West Belfast had largely disappeared Thursday morning, while troops were deployed to guard Roman Catholic political organizations from possible attack.

Ulster’s Protestants tend to carry the political description of loyalist, for their desire to retain British rule, which they see as the sole guarantor of their way of life. Northern Ireland’s minority Roman Catholics have traditionally sympathized with the goal of bringing Ulster into a united Ireland, although they have differed sharply in the role that violence should play in that effort.

Meanwhile, events Thursday merely underscored how politically difficult the road to peace in Northern Ireland is likely to be for all parties.

In London, some members of Prime Minister John Major’s Conservative Party expressed outrage at reports that within 24 hours of the IRA cease-fire, four IRA prisoners had been transferred from jails in Britain to Ulster, including Patrick Magee, who was implicated in the 1984 bombing of a Brighton Hotel that nearly wiped out the entire British Cabinet.

Although British officials insisted that the shift had been arranged months ago and was only coincidentally completed Thursday, the incident was an embarrassment to Major and is likely to unsettle Protestant opinion in the province.

But Major drew some consolation from statements by senior members of Sinn Fein, the IRA political wing, that seemed to go at least part way toward meeting his demand for assurances that ambiguous wording in Wednesday’s cease-fire statement meant a permanent renunciation of violence.

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In a radio interview Thursday, Martin McGuinness, a member of Sinn Fein’s executive committee, said the announcement meant a cease-fire “under all circumstances,” while party leader Gerry Adams said that Irish Prime Minister Albert Reynolds had correctly interpreted the IRA wording. Reynolds hailed the cease-fire as the beginning of a new era.