1994-95: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK : ‘94/’95 TRENDS : To Greet New Year Smartly, Know What’s Hot and Not
Once again it’s that time--time to weigh the ups and downs in the business world and set our sights on a new year. To help you put the year gone by in perspective and head intelligently into 1995, we humbly offer our guidance on what’s in--and what’s out.
Remember the rules: Anything too in is automatically out; some things may be in by virtue of being very out. And note, please, that we are only the messengers; we certainly never advised anyone to invest in derivatives.
Ah, yes, derivatives. Let us say, first off, that highly risky investments are out, out, out! And this year, lifetime “in” status will be granted anyone who is able to explain derivatives to the average college graduate’s understanding.
(Last year, only one reader, Louis Luck of Culver City, accepted our challenge to define information superhighway, thus making it into the exclusive lifetime “in” club.)
Orange County, once the dream of every aspiring young Republican, is out. That wily Orange County treasurer, Robert L. Citron, is out. The board of supervisors there is out, although only two of its members were lucky enough to have their terms expire.
Hundreds of county employees, through no fault of their own, most likely will be out--of jobs. KPMG Peat Marwick, the county’s outside auditor, is on the verge of being out, although in auditing this year, rear-end protecting is in, as the big accounting firms have changed their practice structures to limit partners’ personal liability.
Elsewhere: Democrats are out and Republicans are in. Long-neglected builders of orphanages soon will be in. Recipients of food stamps and welfare are out.
But lest you think kindness and generosity of spirit are out, they are so far out that they must be in. Greed and fraud of every stripe reached epidemic “in” proportions in 1994. We lost count of the number of schemes and scams in 1994 and, too, of the number of consumers and investors bilked and duped.
Baseball is out. Hockey is out. (Bruce McNall is out of an empire.) But if you believe that salary caps are on their way in, then we’ve got a minor league team we’d like to sell you.
In transportation, the Chunnel is in. Perhaps in 1995, the new Denver International Airport will be in business. Air fare wars are in.
Weird unguents--such as thigh cream, tiger ointment and udder balm--are in. Even horse-hair shampoo is coming in. Chicken eateries are in. In China and Japan, U.S. apples are in. Vitamins are in. In Seattle, where high-priced coffee has been in, specialty teas are in.
Cyberspace is in. Crackers, pirates, pornography distributors and hate mongers are trying to get in.
The Mexican peso is down and out, for now. Doing business in Vietnam is in. Foreign trade in general, a la the GATT and Asia-Pacific pacts, is in. Practically every car maker in the world put its customers out, as recalls were very in, leaving Wilson Foods’ hot dogs, some teethers and Gerber pacifiers out.
We’d like to say that discrimination is on its way out; Denny’s says it wants more African Americans to own the very restaurants where in the past they had trouble getting served. But a number of lawsuits in 1994 reminded us that bias is still alive in the workplace.
Woe be unto employees who were once fat girls or short boys; their slim, tall counterparts are in, when it comes to earnings. Speaking of which, Jenny Craig diet centers are out.
In the toy world, we have bestowed upon the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers the Barney Memorial Too-In-Is-Out Award. Some retailers have been brave enough to put toy guns out and off their shelves. (Were it not for our firm stance against violence, we’d be tempted to say those screen savers that show Barney getting killed in a variety of ingenious ways would be in.)
Nintendo bowed to the blood lust of today’s young video game players and put death blows back in home versions of Mortal Kombat. That’s part of the reason why Nintendo is out and Sega is in.
Mattel would be in, by virtue of its purchase (a seven-letter word) of international Scrabble rights, Hula Hoops and Frisbees. However, with its impending layoff of 1,000 workers despite bountiful profits, it has only itself to blame for being out.
Layoffs were still in during 1994. And in a related development, mergers were very in. Almost as in as in 1988. Mergers and network formations were the health-care industry’s way of telling Washington that health-care reform really is in.
As far as Hollywood and other entertainment realms go, even our ample score card couldn’t hold all the ins and outs. The changes at Paramount, Walt Disney and Warner Bros. alone would use up gallons of ink.
So here’s just a glance at the revolving doors. In: Viacom’s Frank J. Biondi Jr., NBC’s Warren Littlefield, Paramount’s Barry London, EMI Records’ Ken Berry, Disney’s Paul Pressler and Chris McGurk, Warner Bros. Records’ Danny Goldberg and Sony’s Jeffrey Sagansky. And Time Warner’s Richard Parsons, United Paramount’s Michael Sullivan, Fox’s David Evans and USA Network’s Rod Perth. (Did we mention that TV networks are back in?)
Out: At Fox, Sandy Grushow; at Warner Bros. Records, Mo Ostin; at Sony, Mike Medavoy; and at Motown, Harry Anger. Simply out: Barry Diller and Stanley Jaffe. And Lynn Redgrave (out of money, that is).
The Japanese are paying through the nose to get out. And Jon Peters and Peter Guber got out, too.
The most in are, of course, Mssrs. Katzenberg, Spielberg and Geffen.
The most out, as far as celebrity endorsements, are Michael Jackson and O.J. Simpson. (We had to mention him.)
George Foreman, bless his 45-year-old body, is in. Tom Snyder will be in during 1995, although Jay Leno is making a strong bid for David Letterman’s “in” status.
Charles Keating is out another $4.3 billion, and out of public companies for life. A jury kept Thomas Spiegel, long out at Columbia S&L;, out of jail. Pat Robertson is in the ice skating business. Really. And Ricki Tigert is finally in as chairwoman of the FDIC.
