ORANGE COUNTY PERSPECTIVE : Reality-Check Day

How many ways can you say, “The county is in deep trouble?” If anybody missed the extent of the Orange County fiscal crisis, Tuesday was reality-check day. In two devastating and credible assessments, representatives of a powerful business group and the county’s new chief executive officer spoke separately about the pain ahead.

Our sense is that many people do not comprehend fully the enormity of the problem. Irresponsible statements about how budget cutting and privatization can get things done have lulled many into a false sense of optimism. On Tuesday, interim Chief Executive Officer William J. Popejoy told the Board of Supervisors that even the “cruel and harsh cuts” just ahead will not be enough to stave off a substantial deficit next year. And Thomas C. Sutton and Gary Hunt of the Orange County Business Council told The Times that the idea of balancing the budget through asset sales and privatization alone is a pie-in-the-sky notion.

These are the people who have taken the trouble to look at the hard numbers. Hunt says the county may well take a hit in excess of $2 billion from this crisis. Popejoy, in addition to delivering the grim news about services and personnel, warned that a default on the more than $1 billion in bond debt due this summer “would destroy our ability to finance schools, roads and other facilities.”

Some of the individuals who have been issuing all those reassurances about asset sales and cuts have been outsiders. Many inside the county, fueled by local advocates of “no new taxation at any price,” have leaped to wishful conclusions. The unvarnished messages from the people in the know indicate that the county cannot wiggle free so easily. The county needs a comprehensive recovery package that asks people to pay more now to avoid the slow destruction of a celebrated lifestyle.