NEWS ANALYSIS : Polls, Schism Signal Likely Defeat of Quebec Sovereignty : Nationalism: Proposal for European Union-style ties with Canada underlines differences among separatists.

During his successful campaign for Quebec premier last fall, separatist candidate Jacques Parizeau repeatedly compared the drive for Quebec independence to a hockey game: The match, he would say, was headed into the third and final period.

Just seven months later, to carry the metaphor forward, one could say it’s halfway through the third period and Coach Parizeau is two goals behind. Moreover, some players are openly challenging his strategy.

While the political dismemberment of Canada--the United States’ largest and most reliable trading partner--remains a possibility, a triumph now by Quebec separatists would be seen as a startling upset rather than the resolute march forward they envisioned not long ago.

Polls in the mostly Francophone province of about 6.8 million consistently find no more than 40% to 45% of voters ready to embrace “sovereignty”--the deliberately ambiguous term favored by the separatists--and Parizeau has been unable to lift the numbers.

He conceded as much last week with the announcement that his long-promised provincial referendum on independence will be held in the fall--or later--rather than in May or June, as he had hoped.

The disarray within the separatist camp was further underlined over the weekend when the Bloc Quebecois, one of the province’s two large separatist political parties, held its convention. What originally had been intended as a rally to light the fuse for a spring referendum became a showcase for divisions within the movement.

Bloc leader Lucien Bouchard, who heads the separatist forces in Canada’s Parliament, used the convention keynote address to advance a new referendum strategy based on formation of a European Union-style economic alliance between Canada and an independent Quebec.

This clashes with the views of Parizeau, who favors an unconditional break with Canada. Although he denied it, Bouchard’s speech was widely interpreted in Quebec as an attempt to seize control of the agenda from Parizeau.

Parizeau sat in the front row of the audience during the Friday night speech but left without talking to reporters. When he finally did react publicly Sunday, he noted pointedly that as premier, he, not Bouchard, will have the final say on the referendum.

More than anything else, the infighting reflects the separatists’ frustration at their inability to attract more voters to their cause. The most recent poll, released last week, showed 59% opposed to sovereignty. In more bad news for the separatists, 68% of those surveyed said they do not expect to change their minds on the issue.

Michael Bliss, a University of Toronto historian who writes frequently on Canadian politics, said it appears that the more Quebeckers learn about independence, the less they like it.

“The closer you get to a ‘yes’ vote (in a referendum), the more you realize the problems you’d create,” he said in a recent interview. “It’s a self-defeating prophecy.”

The most potent issues running against the separatists are economic. An independent Quebec would begin life heavily in debt. The province’s current annual deficit is $4.1 billion, and the accumulated debt is nearly $51 billion. But in addition to that, a sovereign Quebec would inherit as much as one-quarter of Canada’s $396-billion national debt.

Economic studies suggest that is a formula for increased taxes, capital flight and either a devalued currency or rising joblessness. With unemployment already at 12% in the province, Quebeckers are leery of taking such a risk.

Given the heavy U.S. investment in Canada and the two nations’ partnership in the North American Free Trade Agreement, the potential economic disruption of a breakaway Quebec also carries implications for the United States. In recognition of that, President Clinton, during a visit to Ottawa in February, broke with the traditional U.S. policy of strict neutrality on the issue and gave a diplomatically worded endorsement of Canadian national unity.

With the separatists’ solidarity fraying, the backers of federalism, led by Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien, mainly have been stepping aside to watch. Chretien’s announced tactic is to press ahead with business as usual and advise Quebeckers that they have no compelling reasons for leaving Canada.

This approach often draws criticism as being too passive. Jean LaPierre, a former member of Parliament from Montreal who now is a broadcast political commentator, refers to the federalists’ “strategy in absentia.” But, LaPierre acknowledged, so far it has worked.

Perhaps the ultimate problem for the separatists, LaPierre added, is what appears to be Quebeckers’ exhaustion with the sovereignty debate. The latest voter survey showed that nearly two-thirds of voters want to get the referendum over with, and LaPierre said that whenever his radio call-in show schedules a discussion on the subject, ratings drop.

“You just drag it on and on until people are fed up with it to death,” he said. “It’s boring, boring, boring.”