Advertisement

THE VOLATILE DOLLAR : Greenback Shows Some Bounce : Markets: U.S. currency snaps back from record low of 80.15 yen. Some analysts say long decline may be ending.

Share
From Times Staff and Wire Reports

The dollar surged against most major currencies Monday, rebounding after an early-morning meltdown in Tokyo that some traders say may have marked the U.S. currency’s near-term bottom.

After closing at 83.65 Japanese yen on Friday, the dollar plunged as low as 80.15 yen early Monday in Tokyo, before the Bank of Japan jumped into the market and began buying dollars.

As abruptly as it had fallen, the dollar quickly rebounded in Tokyo, reflecting not only the Bank of Japan’s efforts but also the collective decision of many currency traders to finally cash in their extraordinary yen profits this year.

Advertisement

By the close of trading in Tokyo the dollar had rocketed back to 82.62 yen, and the advance continued in New York on Monday, where the U.S. currency closed at 83.90. Early today in Tokyo, the dollar bought 84.10 yen.

Analysts said the day’s trading was significant not only for the dollar’s sharp snapback against the yen, but also because the German mark weakened substantially--raising the prospect that the combined yen-mark-led assault on the dollar is ending.

Indeed, the mark itself hit a record low against the Japanese currency in Tokyo, at 57.58 yen, as traders dumped marks.

As buyers moved back into dollars, the U.S. currency jumped to 1.4129 marks, up from 1.3795 on Friday and the biggest one-day gain since August.

“We’ve entered a corrective phase,” said Peggy Reed, vice president at Credit Agricole in New York. “The market is trying to take back some dollars and push the currency up a bit.”

Some analysts said the market may be sensing that Japan, in particular, is ready to take serious steps to deflate its currency.

Advertisement

The Japanese government has been subtly pressuring the Bank of Japan to cut its discount rate, or short-term lending rate to banks, from the current 1.75% to perhaps 0.75%--a move that would further reduce the attraction of low-paying Japanese money market securities and bonds.

In addition, the government is expected to unveil an economic stimulus plan this week that would boost public spending, possibly increasing U.S. import purchases and thus helping cut Japan’s massive trade surplus with America.

The possibility of coordinated intervention by major world central banks may also be moving some traders to take their profits in yen and marks, analysts say.

Whether the dollar can sustain more than a technical bounce, however, remains unclear. As long as the United States maintains large budget and trade deficits, the dollar is likely to stay in relative oversupply around the world.

Still, there were other signs Monday that currency traders’ recent desire to hold only yen or marks is waning.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 6.255 to the dollar, its highest level in a month, from 6.315 on Friday.

Advertisement

The Canadian dollar rose to a five-month high of 72.54 U.S. cents.

Gold and silver prices fell, their safe-haven status reduced by the dollar’s recovery. Near-term gold futures on the Comex in New York slipped $2.90 to $390 an ounce, and silver sank 13.6 cents to $5.24 an ounce.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock and bond markets reacted to the dollar’s rebound with the same disaffection that characterized them during the currency’s recent slide.

Bond yields were mostly unchanged, awaiting the government’s report today on March wholesale inflation.

In the stock market, technology stocks were sharply higher, but the broad market slogged through a mostly uneventful session, with winners and losers nearly evenly matched on the New York Stock Exchange in slow trading.

The Dow industrial average added 5.53 points to 4,198.15.

Traders expect modest action this holiday week. Markets will be closed on Good Friday.

Among Monday’s highlights:

* Technology stocks, many of which were hit by profit taking last week, roared back. IBM jumped 2 to 86, Hewlett-Packard surged 2 1/2 to 122 1/2, Intel gained 1 3/8 to 88 1/2 and Motorola added 7/8 to 56 1/2.

After the market closed, Motorola reported earnings slightly below analysts’ estimates. But the Semiconductor Industry Assn. said March orders were strong, bolstering the industry’s outlook.

Advertisement

* Telecommunications stocks were also strong after Frontier agreed to by ALC Communications in a $1.8-billion stock swap to form a major long-distance phone company. Frontier shares fell 3 to 19 3/4 but ALC jumped 3 to 36 1/4.

Other telecom winners included LDDS Communications, up 1 5/8 to 25; Tellabs, up 2 5/8 to 60 7/8, and LCI International, up 1 5/8 to 26 1/8.

Overseas, Tokyo’s 225-issue Nikkei index rebounded with the dollar, while European markets were mostly lower.

In Mexico City the Bolsa index slumped 56.36 points to 1,895.80 in renewed selling.

* CONSUMER IMPACT

Factors other than weak dollar influence prices you pay. D2

Advertisement