Kazakh Leader Appears to Win Vote : Europe: Referendum would allow extension of president’s term until 2000, canceling scheduled elections.

President Nursultan A. Nazarbayev appeared headed for victory Saturday in a referendum to allow him to extend his term until the year 2000 without having to face the presidential elections that had been scheduled for next year.

Nazarbayev, who dissolved Parliament earlier this year and has not named a date for new elections, has said he will use the five-year term to push economic and political reforms.

However, domestic critics and Western nations view the referendum as anti-democratic, and Secretary of State Warren Christopher called it “a step backward for Kazakhstan.”

Voting went smoothly Saturday, with a turnout reported at more than 85% one hour before polls closed.

Referendums traditionally have a high turnout in Central Asia, since showing up to cast a “yes” vote to every ballot question was required in Soviet days. Though official results will not be announced until Wednesday, Kazakh officials, observers and voters were unanimous in predicting an easy victory for the president.

“We think there will be prosperity and peace in our country,” said Edil Ergozhin, director of the National Institute of Chemical Sciences, as he emerged from casting his “yes” vote. “We hope that voting for the president will help our country bloom.

“We shouldn’t be afraid of dictatorship,” he said.

“This isn’t 1937,” he added, referring to the peak of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin’s terror.

However, across Central Asia, the political tide is turning toward authoritarian rule. If Nazarbayev wins as expected, he will become the third Central Asian president to extend his term of office to or beyond the turn of the century.

Kazakhstan, a vast, oil-rich nation of 17 million people, has been seen as one of the more liberal of the five Central Asian republics and a magnet for Western investment in the former Soviet Union.

After an early honeymoon, Western investors in Kazakhstan have complained increasingly about entrenched corruption and bureaucracy. But despite the problems, and the growing political criticism from the West, investment appears to be continuing.

“During the past month there have been more foreign investments than previously,” Nazarbayev told reporters after casting his ballot in the capital, Almaty, citing a recent $80-million oil exploration contract with Mobil Oil Co. as one example.

Many Kazakhs saw a vote for Nazarbayev as a vote for stability.

On the wide grasslands outside Almaty, a Kazakh herdsman sat in the shade of an electricity pylon, dipping his lunch of fresh bread into a glass of tea.

To the south, a factory belched smoke against a distant wall of snow-capped mountains. To the north, the steppe and deserts stretched for a thousand miles to Siberia. Three horses cropped the spring grass, and a herd of cattle rested in the warm sun.

“I voted this morning at 7 o’clock,” Daulatkhan Alzhambayev said as he ate. “I voted for the president because he’s a good man. He brought us independence. If someone else comes along, then what will happen?”

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Although Kazakhstan’s ethnic Russian residents are not as enthusiastic about independence, many support the popular Nazarbayev, who advocates close economic, political and military ties with Russia.

“He’s fair to all ethnic groups,” said Vladimir Guskov, a Russian truck driver from Almaty, planting potatoes in a plot on the edge of the city. “That’s his policy.”

Other Russians disagreed. Anatoly, a lawyer who declined to give his last name, said he refused to vote.

The president “has enough power to do what is necessary,” he said. “He already rules by decree. What more does he want?”