Serbia Chief May Recognize Bosnia, Get Sanctions Eased : Balkans: President Slobodan Milosevic mulls ‘comprehensive package’ proposed by U.S. envoy.

Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, whose nationalistic rhetoric has been blamed for fueling the wars devastating the former Yugoslav federation, appears poised to recognize his enemy, Bosnia-Herzegovina, in a move that diplomats hope will represent a breakthrough in the search for peace.

After more than a week of prodding by U.S. envoy Robert Frasure, Milosevic is prepared to accept a “comprehensive package” that calls for recognition of Bosnia in exchange for the easing of sanctions against the rump Yugoslavia--which consists of Serbia and Montenegro--diplomats said Monday.

The United Nations three years ago imposed sanctions on Belgrade because of the regime’s role in instigating and supporting the violent partition of Bosnia, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

Milosevic has rejected similar deals, but the proposal set forth by Frasure, which reportedly includes a six-month suspension of many of the international sanctions, is said to satisfy many of the Serbian president’s demands.

Further, Milosevic--eager to cast himself as a peace-seeking statesman--apparently wants to isolate those of his Bosnian Serb proteges whom he now has trouble controlling; recognizing Bosnia would achieve just that.

To be sure, there are risks as well for Milosevic. He must tread carefully to avoid having to explain why thousands of people have died for what they believed was the creation of their own Serb state--only to have Yugoslavia recognize Bosnian independence after three years of war. But Milosevic’s overriding desire to ease sanctions at a time when Serbia’s economy is reeling and to rehabilitate his own position internationally seems to have outweighed other fears.

While diplomats and analysts speculate that the final act of the Yugoslav crisis may be unfolding, they caution against undue optimism. “It [recognition] is only a piece of the peace,” said a Western diplomat based in Belgrade.

Diplomatic and political acknowledgment of Bosnia does not automatically stop fighting by Bosnian Serb and Croatian Serb separatists; in fact, it may cause them to dig in even deeper.

Frasure, the American member of the five-nation Contact Group mediating the Bosnian war, is believed to have put forward a proposal that would allow Milosevic to recognize Bosnia but stop short of recognizing the Muslim-led Bosnian government in Sarajevo.

Some sanctions would be suspended for six months, rather than lifted permanently; key penalties--bans on fuel imports and international financial transactions--would remain in force.

Mediators believe that recognition would deal a death blow to the Bosnian Serb leadership by further isolating Radovan Karadzic, its chief. He has already endured months of Milosevic chopping away at his power base. The Serbian president turned against his proteges last July when they rejected the Contact Group peace plan, which would have divided Bosnia between the Serbs and a Muslim-Croat federation. Milosevic in August imposed an embargo against the Bosnian Serbs.

Karadzic, calling an emergency session of his “parliament” for this week to discuss the rumored recognition, did not hide his alarm: “No one can recognize Bosnia-Herzegovina unless we recognize it, and this we shall never do.”

Milosevic has for some time been embarked on a campaign to undermine Karadzic’s power in favor of more malleable and less hard-line associates.

“It [recognizing Bosnia] may not have immediate impact on the battlefield,” said a Belgrade-based diplomat. “But it would drive another wedge between Milosevic and Karadzic.”

A Serb politician said another aspect of the package being offered by Frasure may include total lifting of sanctions, if the Bosnian Serbs were to accept maps proposed by the Contact Group, which along with the United States is made up of Russia, Germany, France and Britain. Thus far, the Bosnian Serbs have rejected the maps.

In Serbia’s distorted climate of ardent nationalism, recognition of Bosnia would have been unthinkable until recently. But the nationalist fires have died down. The state-run media have prepared the terrain, secure in the knowledge that people are tired of war and of economic uncertainty.

After four years of upheaval, Serbs are numb. In any case, through Milosevic’s grip on television, they are unlikely to learn about his recognition of Bosnia, which could be disguised as a humanitarian gesture.