PERSIAN GULF : Iran, Iraq: Teaming Up Against a Common Foe? : Longtime Enemies Open Dialogue; United Front Would Pose a Challenge to U.S.

Are Iran and Iraq, historic enemies who fought a murderous war from 1980 until 1988, preparing to reconcile and stand together against their common foe, the United States?

That’s a question being pondered throughout the Middle East after a high-profile visit to Baghdad last month by an 11-member delegation from the Iranian Foreign Ministry. A reciprocal trip to Tehran by Iraqi officials is expected any day.

The official Iranian press heralded the exchange as an opening of the door to rapprochement and reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati will fly to Iraq soon to continue talks with the government of Saddam Hussein.

If the two neighboring countries were to bury their mutual antagonism, it would be an obvious setback for the United States, which considers both pariah nations and pursues a policy of “dual containment” aimed at preventing either of them from dominating the oil-rich Persian Gulf region.

Washington recently blocked efforts by France, Russia and China to begin easing U.N. sanctions imposed on Iraq after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. And April 30, President Clinton signed an executive order imposing stringent new unilateral sanctions against Iran in response to U.S. claims that Tehran supports international terrorism and is trying to build weapons of mass destruction.

Western and Arab diplomats in the area and Middle East analysts are monitoring the situation but remain skeptical that the two regimes can overcome their many longstanding differences. Hostilities between Iraq’s Arabs and Iran’s Persians date back centuries.

The former rivals have twice before attempted to reconcile, only to have efforts break down over specifics.

“We’re watching very carefully,” an official in one of the Gulf states said. “It seems very far-fetched they could mend fences, given the bloodshed between the two countries.”

One Western diplomat with long experience in the region was more outspoken: “If this develops in any significant way, it would be a breathtaking anomaly in the history of Iran-Iraq relations.”

The Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s produced an estimated 1 million casualties before it ended in stalemate with a U.N.-brokered cease-fire. No peace treaty was ever signed.

Iran has demanded $950 billion as compensation from Iraq for war damages, while Iraq has ordered the return of more than 100 warplanes and civilian aircraft left in Iran during the Persian Gulf War to prevent the elimination of Iraq’s air fleet.

Each side claims--in part substantiated by the Red Cross--that the other still holds thousands of prisoners of war.

Each also provides haven and operating bases for armed dissident groups trying to overthrow the government of the other.

Iraq hosts the Moujahedeen Khalq, or People’s Holy Warriors, which has launched assaults into western Iran and is linked to a host of terrorist attacks there.

Tehran hosts the Supreme Assembly for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a predominantly Shiite Muslim movement that has links with Iraq’s southern Shiite population.

Most basic, however, is the dispute that started the last two confrontations: control of the Shatt al Arab estuary, which makes up a portion of the border between the two oil-rich countries. Its waters pour into the Persian Gulf and are vital in shipping oil.

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As part of a 1975 treaty, Iran and Iraq share the Shatt al Arab. But because of its limited coastline, Iraq has long coveted total control of the waterway, and that became a primary motive for its 1980 invasion of Iran.

One European diplomat in the region noted that, while there were “good atmospherics” surrounding the recent visit and the Iranians were “well taken care of” in Baghdad, there was no hard bargaining on these difficult issues.

So far, optimism about the prospects of reconciliation has come almost entirely from the Iranian side.

Ali Khorram, a top aide to Velayati and leader of the delegation to Baghdad, was quoted by the Iranian press agency as saying that Iraqi officials “repeatedly emphasized that the events in the past should be forgotten, and we should open a new chapter in bilateral relations.”

“Continuation of the hostility forever is an illogical idea,” he said.

The official Iraqi press, however, has been far more circumspect--although Al Thawra, an Iraqi paper that reflects government views, editorialized last month that Baghdad “has a sincere desire, stemming from principled considerations, to normalize relations with Iran.”

All the same, some observers believe that Iran is merely trying to gain room for diplomatic maneuvering in response to the Clinton Administration’s efforts to further isolate it.

They note that the Iranian government has also made gestures toward improved relations with India and other neighboring states, and has backed off somewhat on its call for the death of British author Salman Rushdie.

“This is a good way for the Iranians to warn the U.S. of the consequences if they turn troublemaker again,” another European diplomat in the Middle East said. “I think it’s just a warning, a shot across the bow. . . .

“Every once in a while, Iran and Iraq like to show the world what they could do if they were able to pull off this diplomatic coup.”

Clinton Administration officials, while acknowledging that Iran and Iraq may reach some compromises, say they are not concerned by the prospect of the two countries’ putting up a united front against the United States.

“It’s unimaginable that they would do anything major like demilitarize borders or cooperate militarily against the United States,” a U.S. official in Washington said.

In addition, neither country is in a position to help solve the other’s problems, according to Shaul Bakhash, a George Mason University historian and author of “The Reign of the Ayatollahs.”

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Iran does not want to openly defy U.N. sanctions against Iraq, Bakhash said, and economically troubled Iraq cannot help Iran defy U.S. sanctions or provide enough business to make a dent in Iran’s economic mess.

Indeed, as it looks for new buyers to make up for lost U.S. oil company clients, Iran would gain more by keeping Iraq out of the oil market.

“At a psychological level, the talks will cause concern in Western capitals,” Bakhash said. “But they aren’t a credible threat. I don’t think much will come of this in the end.”

Turner reported from Cairo, Wright from Tehran and Washington.

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Profile of Iran, Iraq

IRAQ

Population: 19,889,666 (July, 1994, estimate)

Landmass: 266,858 sq. miles

Military strength: 282,000, plus 100,000 reserves (1994 estimate)

Estimated reserves of crude oil and natural gas: 100 billion barrels at the end of 1993

IRAN

Population: 65,615,474 (July, 1994, estimate)

Landmass: 631,660 sq. miles

Military strength: 513,000, plus 350,000 reserves

Estimated reserves of crude oil and natural gas: 95 billion barrels at the end of 1993.

Researched by Janet Lundblad / Los Angeles Times