The Mubarak Escape : Vital role of a moderate Egypt in the region and the world

Fourteen years ago Islamic extremists murdered Egypt’s President Anwar Sadat. Now gunmen believed to hold the same radical religious views as those assassins have tried to kill Sadat’s successor, Hosni Mubarak, as he visited the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. Mubarak, unhurt, quickly accused neighboring Sudan, whose government favors militant Islamic policies, of abetting his domestic enemies in carrying out the attack. All this points to deepening damage to Egyptian-Sudanese relations, and probably an even more intense crackdown on Egypt’s Islamists.

The relief over Mubarak’s escape expressed in Washington and Jerusalem and by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat was heartfelt. Egypt, the first Arab state to reach a settlement with Israel, remains an important force in the American-sponsored peace process. There’s no certainty that whoever might replace Mubarak--there is no vice president or clear heir apparent--would continue the same moderate foreign policy. Mubarak also remains Arafat’s strongest backer in the Arab world. Several times since Israel and the Palestinians began to talk peace, Mubarak has used his connections with the two sides to help preserve negotiations that seemed to be near breakdown.

However, it is not in foreign but in domestic affairs where Mubarak faces his greatest challenge. Egypt is a society beset by physical decay and massive social injustice, and it is from the frustrations and resentments growing out of these conditions that Mubarak’s Islamist enemies draw their strength. The gap between Egypt’s well-connected and well-off and its masses of poor widens steadily, partly because of exploding population growth, partly and most visibly as a consequence of ruling-class corruption and favoritism. Religious extremists turned to terrorism three years ago in an attempt to overthrow the regime. Mubarak’s response was a brutal and, some say, far too extensive crackdown. It had seemed that the regime clearly held the upper hand. The assassination attempt in Addis Ababa was a chilling reminder that the internal war may still be far from over.