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Japanese Banking Official Agrees Recovery Has Stalled : Asia: He says it’s too soon to consider a rate cut. Economic ministers also sound gloomier.

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From Reuters

Bank of Japan Gov. Yasuo Matsushita acknowledged Wednesday what private economists have already been saying: Japan’s economic recovery appears to be stalling.

But Matsushita said it is unclear whether the stalemate is only temporary and that the central bank is not ready to consider cutting its discount rate, which was slashed to a historic low of 1% in April.

Economists said that despite the gloomier words from Matsushita and from economic ministers earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to decide on another cut in its key lending rate before autumn.

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“Although the economy’s recovery momentum is still there, conditions for the short term suggest that the recovery appears to be stalling,” Matsushita told a news conference.

Asked, however, if the Bank of Japan would cut the discount rate, Matsushita said: “That depends on whether economic reality makes it necessary for us to consider the issue. . . . We are not in a situation to start considering such things.”

Matsushita said the economy is not in a deflationary spiral, though many private analysts and business executives say it is.

“The economy is clearly facing deflation. If the current situation doesn’t change, it will get into serious trouble around early autumn or winter,” said Jiro Nemoto, chairman of the Japan Federation of Employers Assns.

Economic ministers also inched closer to gloomier assessments of the economy.

“Frankly speaking, it is true that there are bright spots and dark spots in economic indicators,” Finance Minister Masayoshi Takemura said. “I cannot say that the economy is recovering steadily.”

Economic Planning Agency Minister Masahiko Komura echoed that view, saying there are many indicators showing a slight weakness in the economy. Komura spoke after briefing Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama on the compilation of the planning agency’s monthly economic report, due for release next Tuesday. He declined to comment on speculation that the report would turn gloomier.

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In its report last month, the agency said the economy was recovering moderately, with some negative effects of the yen’s appreciation appearing in some industries.

Private economists think the economic recovery has already stalled or may never have really gotten started.

“The Japanese economy is in a crisis situation in which zero real growth has continued for the past four years since 1992-93, and even nominal growth may be negative in 1995-96,” according to a report issued Monday by Nomura Research Institute.

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