Opposition Hoping to Sink Roots in Baja : Election: Voters will decide today whether the PAN party will retain its hold in a Mexico that has struggled for decades under single-party rule.

The official motto of Tijuana expresses the pioneering spirit of a border state that is primed for a political showdown in today’s gubernatorial election: “This is where the nation begins.”

Six years ago, this is where a peaceful revolution began.

In the 1989 elections, Ernesto Ruffo Appel, a diminutive and cheerful reformer, became the first opposition party governor in the history of Baja California and Mexico. Propelled by a wave of popularity known as “Ruffo-mania,” his triumph broke six decades of heavy-handed ruling party domination and launched the rise of the opposition National Action Party (PAN) to its status as a full-fledged national contender.

Nonetheless, this summer’s battle for Baja has proved surprisingly competitive. Mexican law bars Ruffo from running for reelection, but he has still overshadowed the race to the point that he reminded the public in a recent advertisement: “I am not a candidate.”

The voters will not only choose between two parties, they will also pass judgment on Ruffo’s tumultuous tenure in a state that has served as a laboratory for democracy.

“He remains the most charismatic politician in Baja California,” said Victor Alejandro Espinosa, a political analyst at the College of the Northern Border. “But in 1989, Ruffo-mania was very strong. The PAN had not been in office for six years. He did not have enemies pointing out errors. There is a lot of political wear and tear with six years in power.”

Baja’s recent history presents two starkly opposite visions of Mexico’s future. The state has been a progressive showcase of political reform, freedom of expression and economic and cultural modernization. Simultaneously, it has endured a nightmare of violence attributed largely to the drug cartels that threaten the nation’s stability: assassinations, street combat between corrupt police forces and a string of unsolved murders.

The PAN wants to overcome those problems with the candidacy of Hector Teran Teran, who leads in most polls, and make history again in its first try at retaining a governorship. The opposition now controls four states, posing a genuine challenge to the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which is an aging behemoth wounded by corruption and economic crisis.

The PRI has fought hard for an upset victory in Baja that would pack a symbolic punch. The party leadership yearns to reconquer this quintessential opposition stronghold, a hub of international commerce, migration, tourism and media that has the highest north-of-the-border profile of any Mexican state.

The PRI hopes to duplicate its recent unexpected win in legislative elections in Chihuahua, another opposition-run border state. Moreover, Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo grew up in Baja and could use even an indirect political victory--though the president has stayed out of the fray, citing his intention of breaking with politics-as-usual.

Francisco Perez Tejada, the PRI candidate, has taken aim at the opposition’s business-oriented, middle-class image, accusing the state administration of insensitivity, intolerance and neglect of the urban poor--his party’s traditional power base.

Known by the nickname “Pancho,” the folksy, 46-year-old mayor of Mexicali suggests that the return of his party to power will bring more federal funds after years of conflict with the central government in Mexico City. He has emphasized classic populist issues such as lower water rates and massive public works projects.

“We will support the neediest with a social program of regularized property holdings, electrification, water, sewers and the promotion of working-class developments with affordable services,” Perez told thousands of supporters at a festive final rally in Tijuana last week.

But the past may be a difficult obstacle for Perez to overcome.

The stage for the opposition breakthrough in Baja six years ago was set by the scandal-plagued rule of former Gov. Xicotencatl Leyva Mortera, whom then-President Carlos Salinas de Gortari ousted from office in early 1989. Perez served as secretary of development in the Leyva administration.

Leyva embodies the old-school “dinosaurs” of the PRI; despite reformist protestations by the party, his political group survives and remains closely aligned with the current candidate, according to analysts.

“The people surrounding Perez are the dinosaurs,” Espinosa said. “The party has not renovated itself. . . . It depends on the ability of Perez to reject them if he wins. If they return, it would be lethal. The public is tired of the old vices.”

Teran, 64, also comes from another generation. He was elected the PAN’s first federal senator in 1991, a former perennial candidate during decades when the opposition made token and futile bids for office. He presents himself as a gentlemanly leader who will expand citizen participation by holding direct elections for the now-appointive offices of attorney general and human rights ombudsman, as well as unprecedented ballot referendums.

“The people’s right to referendums is a form of social participation which they do not have now,” Teran said in an interview. “We also have to advance in the sense that the governor has a lot of power. This power has to be shared with the congress and with the city halls . . . so that the governor becomes an authority whose leadership is founded not on resources or bureaucracy, but moral leadership.”

Teran’s solid, if less than dynamic, campaign has maintained a lead of between three and 10 percentage points in most polls. The notable exception: a PRI-funded poll conducted by the College of the Northern Border that gives Perez a slight edge. Tijuana, the state’s biggest city, is shaping up as the decisive battleground.

In addition to the state’s chief executive, voters will elect mayors and legislators. The once-formidable Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and four other small parties are fielding candidates, but the polls give them a minimal share of the vote.

Rather than going after Teran, opponents have blasted away at Ruffo. The angriest debate involves a series of advertisements in which the outgoing administration extolled its record in infrastructure improvements, land reform and other areas. Critics say the governor used public funds for political purposes, accusing him of the same dirty tricks as the traditional politicians he criticizes.

Ruffo says he has simply clarified his record in response to withering, sometimes personal attacks.

“One thing is politics, another is when they start to tell lies,” Ruffo told reporters last week. “I have no other action but to respond to lies. A lie told a thousand times can stick.”

The usual campaign acrimony takes place in an unusually tense national climate fostered by angry disputes over election results in the states of Tabasco and Yucatan and eruptions of politically charged violence around Mexico. Federal and state police in Baja will operate roadblocks and special patrols today to keep the peace. And no liquor will be sold during the election weekend.

Perhaps the best safeguard against election-related disturbances here is one of the Ruffo administration’s early initiatives: a set of innovative electoral reforms that are being copied nationwide.

Voters will present high-tech photo identification cards to be checked against photos in a computerized registry at polling places. Instead of the federal or state governments, an independent citizens commission will run the process, monitored by outside watchdog groups.

“Elections held in Baja today can be reliably counted upon to be just about the cleanest anywhere in Mexico,” said Wayne Cornelius, a Mexico expert at UC San Diego.

Ironically, two fundamental issues that will potentially affect the outcome are largely beyond the control of the governor: economics and narcotics.

The catastrophic crisis caused by the federal government’s devaluation of the peso eight months ago bodes darkly for the nation’s ruling party. But analysts say voters are so disgusted that they could express their rage indiscriminately against incumbents, including the PAN. Moreover, Baja has not been hurt as seriously as less prosperous states in the interior.

Similarly, polls show that crime and drug trafficking rank highest among the concerns of the citizenry, which has watched wholesale police corruption and startling murders go unpunished. The violence grows largely out of the rise of international drug cartels, which are the jurisdiction of the federal police. Yet it remains to be seen who the voters will blame.

Election results in Mexico have become less predictable as the political system becomes more democratic and competitive. The opposition in Baja and elsewhere has had to grapple with the realities of power, making the electorate more volatile, according to Cornelius.

He said Mexicans are “just voting more like Americans: punishing and rewarding political parties, retrospectively and selectively, depending on their actions and performance in office. The anti-government protest votes being cast may be aimed as much against the federal government as against state and local governments. . . . Democracy is a messy business.”