Back-to-School Retail Figures Slow for U.S., Healthy Here : Economy: Weakness may indicate consumer spending is slowing. The summer’s heat wave is also partly to blame.

The nation’s retailers Thursday reported lackluster sales for August as record-breaking heat in the East and Midwest hurt back-to-school sales.

However, in the Los Angeles area, sales were surprisingly healthy, given that the overall economy is sluggish.

Nationwide, the weakness was across-the-board, affecting department stores, specialty stores and discounters. Some economists said the sluggishness may indicate that the pace of consumer spending is slowing.

Cynthia Latta, a senior economist with DRI/McGraw Hill in Boston, said cautious spending is consistent with other economic trends, such as slower job growth and the rapid buildup in consumer debt over the last 12 months.

“This could be a sign consumers are beginning to pull back,” Latta said. But other experts say it is hard to draw conclusions from the August results because the weather is such an important factor. Thomas Tashjian, an analyst with Montgomery Securities in San Francisco, said the sweltering heat that killed dozens of people in the Midwest naturally kept people from buying warm fall clothing.

“To call the results disappointing is not a good word,” Tashjian said. “The results are logical.”

Tashjian said sales look weak in part because last August was an unusually strong month, as cool weather sparked record fleece sales.

Sears, Roebuck & Co. and Dayton Hudson Corp., which operates the Mervyn’s and Target chains, cited hot weather as a major factor in their results. Dayton Hudson reported a 3% gain in same-store sales--that is, stores open at least a year--buoyed by good sales at Target. Same-store sales in its department stores and Mervyn’s were down.

Sears reported a 3% gain in same-store sales, thanks in part to sales of summer-related merchandise such as lawn and garden equipment. Analysts said Sears benefited from sales of air conditioners.

J.C. Penney Co., citing weak sales of children’s apparel, said same-store sales fell 0.4%. Federated Department Stores Inc., parent of Macy’s and Bullocks, eked out a 0.9% gain.

August retail sales have been traditionally viewed as a predictor of the all-important holiday shopping season. But in recent years analysts have seen little correlation between the strength of back-to-school buying and Christmas shopping. For example, they said that in 1992, a poor back-to-school season was followed by a strong Christmas shopping season, as consumers regained confidence after Bill Clinton was elected.

“There just isn’t a strong connection,” said Carl Steidman, an economist with Management Horizons, an Ohio retail consulting firm.

Some analysts challenged the notion of a back-to-school shopping season. New York retail consultant Kurt Barnard said teen-agers buy clothes as they need them, extending the school shopping season well into the fall. Teen-agers often postpone their buying until they get to school and see what other kids are wearing, to make sure they are in fashion.

Steidman said that in general, it is becoming difficult for retailers to show sales gains because apparel prices have fallen, in part because of promotional pricing. To show sales gains at lower prices, retailers have to sell more merchandise, he said.

Retailers reported strong sales gains in Los Angeles and San Francisco, but sales remained weak in San Diego and Sacramento, Montgomery Securities’ Tashjian said.

A spokeswoman for Dayton Hudson said the Mervyn’s stores in California performed better than the chain as a whole. Mervyn’s, which operates through the West and South, registered a 3.4% sales drop in August.

Consumers shopping in Glendale on Thursday said they were ready to spend on back-to-school items, but had an eye out for markdowns.

Brenda Franklin, describing herself as someone who “hates shopping,” said she was drawn to the Glendale Galleria by all the sales. At the J.C. Penney store, back-to-school signs were everywhere, and the store was bustling with shoppers on a hot afternoon.

Her son, Sean, was excitedly asking his mother to buy him a $15 Dodger T-shirt. “I’m hoping it’s on sale,” she said after inspecting the price tag.

One retailer that didn’t seem to benefit much from healthy buying in Los Angeles was The Broadway, which has agreed to be acquired by Federated Department Stores Inc. The company said sales at stores open at least a year fell 9.2% in August, in part because some manufacturers briefly halted shipments to the financially troubled company.

CONSUMER CAUTION: Consumer incomes are higher but spending doesn’t keep pace. D2