Israeli Party Looks to Election to Kill Peace Pact

When Benjamin Netanyahu stands up to thrash the Israeli-Palestinian peace accord in what promises to be a torrid Knesset debate beginning today, the opposition Likud Party leader will be speaking not so much to lawmakers called on to ratify the agreement as to prospective voters in next year’s national election.

The right-wing opposition failed to prevent Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin from signing the interim accord giving Palestinians control over much of the West Bank land that Israel captured in the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, and according to Netanyahu’s count they lack the votes--by a razor-thin margin--to block its ratification.

Now, opponents of Rabin’s agreement with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat are looking at the election as their last chance to roll back the peace process that has been under way since 1993. The narrow margin of passage expected in Parliament of two votes or possibly a tie--which the government could turn into a stamp of approval--reflects a deep division in Israeli society that Netanyahu hopes will put him in the prime minister’s seat next year.

From there, Netanyahu said, “we can start from scratch” with the Palestinians.

“The question before the public is who can best guarantee their short-term and long-term security,” said Netanyahu, laying out his campaign themes during an interview by mobile telephone as he drove home for the Yom Kippur holiday. “The question is where Israel’s borders are. Who will determine that we do not return to the borders of 1967 and that Jerusalem is not divided?

“The main point about the Knesset vote is that it mirrors declining public support for the peace accord. Look at the polls today, even after the extraordinary event at the White House. . . . This is the height for Rabin,” he said.

Public opinion polls put support for the peace process at just about 51%, and a survey by respected Israeli pollster Mina Zemach following the signing of the interim agreement in Washington last week shows the cantankerous Rabin running neck and neck with his more telegenic opponent Netanyahu. In a supposed two-way race, each would get about 42% with 16% undecided.

The future of the peace accords rests on that undecided or wavering centrist vote. Rabin’s Labor-led government is up against the grave concerns that many Israelis have for their security, in light of a spate of bus bombings by Islamic extremists that have taken dozens of lives in the two years since Rabin and Arafat first agreed to make peace.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, must be mindful that Israelis are enjoying an economic boom that is due, in large part, to the peace agreement. The country has new diplomatic and economic relations with those who opposed Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip or respected an Arab-led boycott of Israel.

Comfortable with an unemployment rate that has fallen from 12% to 6.5% and a projected economic growth of 8% this year, these Israelis have largely declined to turn out for demonstrations against the peace accord. Rather, the calls by conservatives and West Bank Jewish settlers to protest outside Rabin’s house and set up urban roadblocks have been met with indifference.

This has been a major source of frustration to the more than 120,000 West Bank settlers who oppose the accord and fear that a Labor-led government will agree to move them out of their 130 enclaves during negotiations over the final status of the peace accord, which are to begin in May.

They view themselves as inheritors of the biblical land of Judea and Samaria, and the military front line against the Arab world. But most Israelis do not share their view.

“The fact is, Israelis go to Turkey more often than they go to the settlements,” said Ehud Sprinzak, a political scientist at Hebrew University. “The message of the settlers is, ‘We represent you.’ But the majority says, ‘You don’t represent us.’ ”

Leaders of the main settlers organization, the Council of Jewish Communities of Judea, Samaria and Gaza, understand that they must keep their protests legal and peaceful if they are to persuade the political center to defeat Rabin and his peace accord.

“Our midterm strategy is to see that we [the opposition] win the next elections,” said Yesha chairman Yisrael Harel. “We are confident that our chances of returning to government are more than good, provided we don’t make any big mistakes and no one takes unilateral steps. The center decides, and if we do not frighten the center, we are OK.”

But Likud must contend with radicals in the right-wing ranks who see red when it comes to relinquishing West Bank territory to Palestinians.

The interim agreement calls for the Israeli army to withdraw completely from six West Bank cities and most of Hebron in the coming months, and turn them over to Palestinian police and civil officials. Israeli soldiers will also pull back from more than 400 Arab villages and from main roads, but they will retain the right to operate there at their discretion.

Bypass roads are being built to connect Jewish settlements to the rest of Israel inside the so-called Green Line, or pre-1967 frontier with what was then part of Jordan. And Israelis are to remain in control of open spaces in the beginning. Still, the potential for intentional or inadvertent conflict remains high in an area heavy with guns and resentment.

“Once the Knesset passes the accord, we have no choice but to accept it,” said Pinchas Wallerstein, a leader of one of Yesha’s regional councils. “But we won’t ever accept the possibility of Jewish residents under the control of a foreign army, even if that means war.

“If I see any Arab with weapons in my way, I will treat him as a terrorist. If I feel he wants to stop me or point any weapon at me, I shoot. That is the message I have given to the population,” Wallerstein said.

Such a message could easily spark conflict in disputed terrain, where Israeli and Palestinian jurisdiction will be marked on maps but not on the ground. And any violence could backfire against those trying to defeat Rabin’s accord.

Settlers continue to encourage newcomers to move into the West Bank, to increase their numbers and make any future evacuations more difficult. In Hebron, settlers remaining in the heart of a city of 120,000 Palestinians are setting up a militia to be called in whenever the Jewish population feels threatened.

And Noam Federman, a leader of the outlawed Kach movement, said that his small but radical group plans to continue trying to block implementation of the accord by going into Palestinian areas in army reserve uniforms.

“The Israeli army understands they have to prevent the two sides from fighting. The idea is to put people inside the autonomy area. Once we are there, the army has to go in too. If we do that every day and every week, that will mean the Palestinians are not ruling the area,” Federman said.

His group has been outlawed for its racist views.

Netanyahu has tried to distance himself from radicals who might resort to illegal actions and violence. But he also uses a racial argument in his campaign against Rabin’s accord, charging that the prime minister relies on the “subterfuge” of the five Knesset members who represent Israel’s 900,000 Arab citizens for a majority to endorse the accord.

“It is obvious the Jewish majority opposes this. There is a growing feeling that the future of Zionism, of the Jewish state, is being decided without a Jewish majority,” Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu quickly turns again to the issue of security--Rabin’s Achilles’ heel if Islamic extremists continue to attack in Israel. “As [the peace agreement] progresses, the public will become more aware of what is involved and suffer the consequences of terrorist enclaves near Jewish cities. . . . The government has created a security nightmare with a patchwork quilt of perimeters that can hardly be defended,” he said.

It is a theme that leads some critics to charge that the Likud leader is counting on the Islamic group Hamas to do his work for him: Hamas will strike and Likud will reap the political benefits of Israeli anger.

No, Netanyahu says. Hamas strikes and Arafat reaps the benefit.

“They are both working for the same goal, to accelerate Israeli withdrawal,” Netanyahu said. “Both want to see Israel shrink.”