NEWS ANALYSIS : Independence Threat Retains Impact on Issues

The narrow defeat suffered by Quebec’s separatists in Monday’s referendum means that the ongoing threat of separation, poised over Canada like a guillotine, will continue to influence every major national political and economic decision in the foreseeable future.

Each will be measured at least in part, if not first and foremost, for its potential impact on Quebec’s mercurial voters.

The result also undercuts the authority of Prime Minister Jean Chretien and sharpens the regional factionalism that underlies Canadian politics.

In Quebec, the political agenda continues to be controlled by the separatists. Although they lost the referendum, the separatists won most of the votes of the 82% French-speaking majority, and the provincial government of separatist Premier Jacques Parizeau does not have to stand for reelection until 1999. The campaign leadership of Lucien Bouchard, who heads the opposition in Canada’s Parliament, further elevated his status as Quebec’s most popular politician.

They have time to reassemble their forces and try again before the end of the century.

Particularly affected by the potential for another separatist test will be the drive by the government of Chretien and his finance minister, Paul Martin, to reduce federal budget deficits. Deficit reduction is tied to difficult and controversial plans to reduce the cost of and decentralize Canada’s social programs. Some of those proposals have been sitting on the shelf for months, awaiting the outcome of the referendum.

With the less-than-decisive separatist defeat, many political leaders will argue that they should stay there.

One of the central planks of the separatist platform was that an independent Quebec could best protect Quebeckers against anticipated cutbacks in health care and social services. If unpopular cutbacks occur, the separatists can argue, “We told you so.”

Pressure to continue with deficit reduction will come from the Western-based Reform Party in Parliament and from international financial markets. Foreign investors own about 40% of the national debt.

On another front, vague, last-minute campaign promises by Chretien that Canada could “change” in ways to suit Quebec raised the expectation among some of constitutional reform. Most Quebeckers would like to implant in the constitution permanent protections for the province’s French language and distinct culture against any changes by the country’s English-speaking majority.

But the constitutional amendments sought by Quebec remain widely opposed in the rest of Canada as giving one province greater power than the other nine. Despite an outpouring of pro-Quebec feeling by Canadians outside the province in the last week of the campaign, it is far from certain whether that could be converted into backing for constitutional reform.

Nor is it certain that Parizeau’s government would be interested in talking about reform, rather than preparing for the next referendum.

In an angry speech to supporters Monday night, Parizeau did not sound like someone interested in negotiation with an old adversary. Instead, he talked of “revenge” and blamed his defeat on “money and the ethnic vote.”

Chretien is likely to be politically damaged by the unexpectedly close race. Although he may be credited for pulling out a victory at the last minute, the pragmatic prime minister, usually very sure-footed politically, badly miscalculated the situation in his home province.

He tailored his government initiatives with the referendum in mind, handpicked the federalist campaign team and masterminded the strategy. The intent was to win such a one-sided victory in the referendum, something similar to the 60-40 margin in the last referendum, in 1980, that the separatists would be crushed forever.

But Chretien clearly was bested by Bouchard on the campaign trail. In fact, the prime minister may have turned out to be a liability. Although Chretien has been very popular in the rest of Canada, his approval ratings have never been as high in Quebec.

His fierce defense of Canadian centralism and his opposition to Quebec nationalism have been interpreted by most Quebeckers as contrary to the interests of the province. On Nov. 4, 1981, for example, as justice minister in the Cabinet of Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, Chretien was instrumental in engineering a new constitution for Canada without the participation of Quebec’s premier, who was Rene Levesque. To this day, Quebec is the only province not to ratify the document.

Bouchard repeatedly reminded Quebeckers of Chretien’s role in that drama--dubbed “the night of the long knives” by Quebec nationalists--to notable effect.

With the possibility of another referendum, Canadians may ask themselves if Chretien is the best person to again carry the federalist banner.