NEWS ANALYSIS : South Korea’s Body Politic Braces for Still More Blows

Reeling from a series of shocks that have rivaled the coups of the past, South Korea is bracing for still more blows that promise to profoundly change the nation’s political structure.

A former president, Roh Tae Woo, is in jail awaiting indictment for bribery after confessing that he accumulated a slush fund of $653 million while in office.

Prosecutors are after a second former president, Chun Doo Hwan, perpetrator of a coup in 1980, who on Friday refused to comply with a summons for questioning over allegations of insurrection and a bloody suppression of pro-democracy protests in Kwangju in which 200 people were killed.

Within days, about two dozen chairmen of the giant chaebol , or conglomerates, that dominate South Korea’s booming economy are expected to be indicted on charges of giving bribes to Roh.

Hanging in the balance are the careers of untold numbers of politicians, who fear that the two bitter former presidents might reveal how they dealt out slush funds to both ruling and opposition party lawmakers.

If prosecutors go “too far, Roh may open his mouth,” said Park Kwon Sang, a political commentator.

So broadly were the slush funds spread around that few politicians appear safe. After a three-decade career of opposition to authoritarian military rulers, three-time presidential candidate Kim Dae Jung, for example, admitted that he took $2.6 million from Roh, who was a major general at the time of the uprising in Kwangju, in Kim’s native region.

“How could Kim take money from a leader of the Kwangju operation?” asked Kim Chong Chul, columnist and editorial writer for the Hankyoreh newspaper.

Reformist President Kim Young Sam’s popularity is sagging because of his association with Roh, and his ruling party is deeply split between his loyalists and followers of the two former military presidents. He is struggling to salvage the last half of a constitutionally limited five-year term.

But the worst possible political scenario for Kim--a wrenching crisis that could drive him from office or cripple his ability to govern--appears unlikely.

“It would be difficult for him [President Kim] to stay in office if it were discovered that he received money from Roh’s slush fund,” said a former well-placed government official.

But “it’s not likely the president received [election campaign] money himself. And Roh is not likely to say, ‘I gave it to him directly.’ And even if he did receive it directly, nobody will be able to prove it,” he added. “Kim Young Sam has his hand on the sword. It can cut only where he wants it to cut.”

Many business people say Kim has kept the promise he made after being inaugurated in 1993 not to accept any political contributions.

But doubts remain.

Kim Hyon Chul, son of the president, “is receiving money,” the former government official said. “Whether on behalf of the father or not is unknown. But the only reason people are giving him money is because of who his father is.”

Another businessman, who is a close relative of a conglomerate leader, said President Kim had stopped receiving contributions from business leaders “directly.” But when asked what he meant by “directly,” the businessman answered that he does not know what Kim’s son is doing.

Two Western economists said that payments to the president have stopped but that “facilitation” payments continue to officials in charge of issuing permits.

Still, the exposure of Roh’s slush fund “has made it difficult to do it again--although small-scale corruption will continue but with higher ethical standards at the top,” the former high government official said.

The worst possible scenario for the country--another coup--also appears remote. Although unconfirmed, reports that some army elements were plotting a coup had emerged in mid-November.

“The ruling camp is totally in disarray. So is the opposition. Established politicians are completely discredited,” said commentator Park. “Who else is there? Young radicals who may be pro-North Korea? The army is discredited too, but if the left-wing emerged, businessmen would ask the army to come in.”

Like many other economists, Lee Jae Min, a senior research officer in the Export-Import Bank of Korea, predicted that South Korea could wind up without any party winning a majority in a crucial April 11 National Assembly election.

“But that won’t effect the economy,” he said.

“In the old days, companies relied upon government decisions to make their investments. Now, they make their investment decisions on their own,” Lee said. “Our economy has outgrown the government.”

In the short run, the political uproar “will stop before it reaches crisis proportions,” the former government official predicted.

“By around the end of the year,” he said, “indictments will be completed, there will be a statement by the president, a Cabinet reshuffle will be carried out. But it will take a long time to really get over the incident.”

The potential for sweeping change appears to be deepening almost daily. Partly for his own survival, Kim appears to be promoting it.

His actions since Roh’s TV confession and apology strongly indicate that the president aims to destroy both of his old political nemeses--democracy advocate Kim Dae Jung and onetime coup plotter Kim Jong Pil--as well as former generals Chun and Roh. Kim also appears to be trying to create a new ruling party stripped of former military men; he can then name his own successor as president in 1997.

In the process, collusive ties between business and government would be severed, and the military would be extricated from politics.

Son Hak Kyu, a spokesman for Kim’s party, summed up the strategy by saying: “Severing links between politics and business will end some of the evil legacy of the past. But only by ousting the ghost of military dictatorship can we emerge as a true democratic nation in the world.”

A former executive of a major conglomerate observed: “Genuine democracy finally has come to Korea, even if it is somewhat chaotic. We’re finally getting decent politics for the first time in 50 years. The separation of business and politics is coming. Exciting new things are happening now.”

Polls show that Kim lifted his popularity by saying he favors prosecuting Chun and Roh for their mutiny, coup and bloody suppression of the Kwangju protest.

But Kim still faces a steep uphill battle that he is not expected to win for the National Assembly election.

That ballot will set the stage for a presidential election--or at least some kind of election to choose a new leader--in 1997.

It could produce deep-seated change.

Powers that were concentrated in the hands of the presidents--to deal with the threat from Communist North Korea and to nurture an economy buried in poverty as late as the mid-1960s--no longer seem necessary.

The debate over whether the nation should stick with its presidential system or switch to a parliamentary system with a prime minister has already begun and is expected to accelerate, if, as expected, no party wins a majority in the National Assembly election.

Commentator Park insisted that corruption will not end until the powers of South Korea’s “imperial presidency” are curbed.

Park Joon Kyu, a former Speaker of the National Assembly, said that “without changing the system, there will be another Roh Tae Woo.”

Running a presidential system means maintaining a party apparatus of at least 2,000 highly paid organizers and spending more than $150 million on presidential elections, he said.

“In addition, our social structure is divided by regional animosities. One man cannot rule the whole nation. And with a president, you can’t share power through a coalition,” he said.

“There won’t be a presidential election in 1997. We will have a Cabinet system,” he predicted flatly.

But Lee Bu Young, of the opposition Democratic Party, argued that strong, consistent presidential leadership is needed to deal with Communist North Korea to seek reunification of the divided nation.

“Dealing with corruption is important. But the North-South issue is more important,” Lee said.

To Nam Jae Hee, a former labor minister who is a strong supporter of Kim, South Korea is still going through a process heading toward full democracy. From the outright military-dominated rule of Park Chung Hee and Chun Doo Hwan, both of whom came to office in coups, Roh Tae Woo represented a midpoint on the road back to civilian rule.

Although a former general who abetted a mutiny and a coup staged by his predecessor, Roh promised--and produced--democratic reforms.

Kim Young Sam, a former opposition leader, represented a return to full-fledged civilian rule.

But inasmuch as Kim took office as the ruling party’s candidate, his ascension to power was not a full-fledged change of government.

Nam believes that the upheaval triggered by Roh’s slush-fund revelations will hasten the process toward a change in government, putting an opposition leader at the helm for the first time--although not necessarily in the next election.