Winter May Be Peacekeepers’ Best Ally

For the past four days, a handful of U.S. soldiers have waited in the fog for airplanes that never land.

Overhead, they can hear the droning of C-130s that have flown from Germany to deliver troops and equipment, only to turn back at the last moment because of the weather. For the few soldiers who managed to land earlier, it is lonely at the Tuzla air base--the center of U.S. operations in Bosnia.

But in the absence of U.S. military might, the same fog and snow that have made deployment so difficult are also doing a good job of enforcing the Bosnian peace.

While the harsh winter weather will slow the U.S. mobilization--hampering mobility and impeding the removal of land mines--some experts predicted Sunday that it also will be the peacekeepers’ friend.

“I would say if there was a time to come here it is now,” said Army Special Forces Chief Warrant Officer Bob Suplik, who specializes in cold-weather warfare and was one of the first to arrive. “They [the formerly warring soldiers] are resting by the fireplace now, visiting with Mama. They can’t catch us coming in.”

Despite its heavy human toll, the Bosnian war has been largely a seasonal event. Each winter, the fighting has come to a halt--except for isolated incidents. Then it has resumed in the spring with the return of good weather.

While the logistics of deploying 20,000 troops in heavy fog, snow and freezing rain are difficult, the timing should allow the Americans to establish positions before the traditional start of the fighting season.

“It keeps them [the Balkan combatants] indoors. They are trying to keep their feet warm, and no one is very aggressive,” said French Maj. Herve Gourmelon, a U.N. spokesman in Sarajevo who will soon transfer to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization force.

The winter weather also is likely to slow the flow of refugees, many of whom may prefer to wait until spring to begin rebuilding their devastated homes and villages. That also will assist the U.S. troops by keeping the roads from becoming clogged with traffic.

Under the Dayton, Ohio, peace agreement, the NATO forces have 30 days to part the opposing factions and create a 2 1/2-mile-wide zone of separation. Some speculate that the bad weather will make it impossible to meet the deadline; others suggest that the same weather conditions will make the need less urgent.

But the outgoing U.N. commander in Tuzla, Norwegian Brig. Gen. Hagrup Haukland, predicted Sunday that even with a late start, the NATO forces will be able to meet the 30-day deadline. Getting the armies to separate, he said, is simply a matter of requiring military commanders in the area to abide by conditions to which they have willingly acceded.

At the same time, the general said it is important for the U.S. forces to deploy quickly to uphold their part of the bargain. “They need to have the troops on the ground as soon as possible,” he said.

The Americans have been scheduled to take command from Haukland and the U.N. forces in the northeastern sector of Bosnia on Tuesday, but they appear far from ready. With 80 planes unable to land in the past four days, they do not have the vehicles, communications equipment or troops they need to run the base properly.

While U.S. military officials in Tuzla insist they are not behind in their mobilization, they point out that they are operating under peacetime conditions and will not risk lives to meet a schedule.

“We are not going to take chances. We are not going to do things that are silly,” said Air Force Col. Neal Patton. Jokingly he added: “A plan is simply something you deviate from.”

Delays in the deployment have failed to dim the optimism of NATO’s top military commanders for the operation, who pointed Sunday to signs that peace in Bosnia is beginning to take hold.

U.S. Army Gen. George A. Joulwan, the American in overall command of NATO’s Bosnian peacekeeping mission, said all of the combatants in the 3 1/2-year-old civil war have met the deadline in the Dayton peace agreement to shut down their antiaircraft radar systems, making the air above Bosnia far safer for NATO aircraft.

And Joulwan said there is “encouraging news” of movement by the formerly warring Serbian, Croatian and Muslim factions to leave the zones of separation established under the peace treaty. At least one faction has begun identifying and removing land mines laid during the civil war, he added.

“It’s very encouraging, and I hope it continues,” he said on the CBS-TV program “Face the Nation,” speaking from Mons, Belgium.

Maj. Gen. William L. Nash, the commander of U.S. and foreign forces in the U.S. sector of Bosnia, added in a separate interview from Frankfurt, Germany, that “we’re very pleased with the compliance of all parties to the peace accord.”

Appearing on NBC-TV’s “Meet the Press,” Nash said that “since the [treaty] signing in Paris, all indications are that they [the factions] are proceeding forward in good faith, and I don’t think we should overreact to any type of threat right now.”

Despite the weather in Tuzla, Joulwan and Nash said the deployment is beginning to gain momentum. More than a brigade of U.S. troops are on the ground in the staging area in Hungary. Thirty-one trains are en route to Bosnia, four convoys of troops have reached their destination, and 200 aircraft have landed in Germany, Italy, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia with troops and equipment.

Joulwan predicted that the headquarters of the 1st Armored Division, which will serve as the main U.S. combat unit in Bosnia, will be in place in Tuzla by Wednesday and that 1,000 to 1,500 U.S. soldiers will be in the area by the end of December.

On the runway at Tuzla, scores of photographers and reporters have waited in the cold each day since Thursday to see a transport plane land. At times, aircraft have poked through the fog as low as about 20 yards above the runway, but they have never had sufficient visibility to land.

One airplane carrying NBC anchorman Tom Brokaw was forced to turn back Saturday while CBS anchorman Dan Rather waited on the tarmac in the hope of catching a ride out of Bosnia on the same plane.

The difficulties of deploying in winter probably will get worse. Because of the decision to arrive in December, there no doubt will be accidents on icy roads. Land mines will be harder to find in the snow, potentially causing casualties. And soldiers spread across the Bosnian landscape in numerous encampments will face hardship.

But the winter will give precious time to the United Nations and other agencies struggling to get organized to implement the civilian side of the Dayton accord, including the job of refugee repatriation and resettlement.

The true test for the U.S. forces and the peace agreement will come when the snow melts.

“When winter ends, we’re going to find out if they really want peace,” said Suplik, the Special Forces chief warrant officer and a native of Oakland. “They better learn to live together, that’s all I can say.”

Times staff writers Tyler Marshall in Zagreb, Croatia, Tracy Wilkinson in Sarajevo and James Risen in Washington contributed to this story.