Syria Emits Mixed Signals on Peace

The signs are subtly--and oh-so-slowly--changing.

Major holidays once marked with symbolic displays of Syria’s military prowess now feature “peace billboards” that declare “Peace is a noble objective” and “Peace is to the benefit of the Syrian people.”

References to the “Zionist entity” have been replaced in Syria’s media by the word “Israel”--implicit recognition of the Jewish state that Syria has long denied, defied and fought.

And the rhetoric of war is easing. The government’s new line is “We fought with honor, we negotiate with honor and we make peace with honor.” President Hafez Assad is heralded as “the hero of peace.”

But whether Syria really means to make peace soon is the hottest question in the Middle East as Israeli and Syrian negotiators prepare to sit down today for their second round of closed-door talks at Maryland’s Wye Plantation.

History does not encourage optimism.

The negotiations between Israel and Syria have ground to a standstill twice since they opened after the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference.

The first time, President Clinton revived the talks by meeting Assad in Geneva in 1994. But the talks deadlocked again in June, when Syria balked at Israel’s demand for early warning stations on the Golan Heights as part of the price for returning the strategic plateau, captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East War, to Damascus. The talks resumed after the Nov. 4 assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in Tel Aviv.

The traditional assessment has been that Assad uses stop-and-go negotiations to secure the attention of the West, particularly that of the United States, but that he delays an actual agreement because he cannot yet afford a final deal due to its domestic implications. Opening Syria and relaxing the government’s tight controls, according to this analysis, might lead to demands for change in one of the region’s most authoritarian states.

Many Western diplomats now contend, however, that for Syria the if question about the peace process has become one of when.

“Most aspects of life have been changed by the peace process,” said a European envoy, referring to Syria’s evolving political environment. “It’s hard not to believe that something is about to happen.”

Interpreting the signs of change, however, often depends on whether the glass is perceived as half full or half empty.

In recent months, Damascus has stopped the transshipment of arms from Iran to Tehran’s Lebanese allies and has distanced itself from Iranian policies, according to Western intelligence sources. That is a major shift from the days in the 1980s when Damascus was an outpost for Iranian envoys and agents meddling throughout the region.

Hard-line Mideast groups that have operated from Syria and reject peace with Israel have also been restricted recently, diplomats say.

Yet many extremists, such as Ahmed Jibril of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, remain in Damascus. They and others still hold their meetings, make their plans and condemn peace from Syria--the main reason Damascus is still on the U.S. State Department’s list of states that sponsor terrorism.

And Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia most active against Israel, operates in areas controlled by Syrian troops.

“Syria considers these to be useful cards in the negotiating game,” another Western diplomat said. “Their status probably will not change until that game is over.”

Assad appears at the same time to be responding to other Western concerns, such as human rights and economic liberalization.

In an unannounced amnesty, Syria released about 1,500 political prisoners in November, diplomats report. It also freed up to 7,000 other prisoners in December, and parliament passed a law offering clemency to almost 300,000 people charged with everything from draft dodging to dealing illegally in foreign currency.

Largely because of the amnesties, Damascus is rife with speculation about the imminent repeal, or at least non-implementation, of several restrictive economic laws in a major step to relax state controls on business activities.

Syria’s mixed signals extend even to the implications of peace. Israeli negotiators said last week that Damascus is prepared to accept normal relations with Israel, including trade and tourism.

Yet Damascus prohibited Syrians from participating in the World Economic Forum gatherings in Casablanca, Morocco, in 1994 and Amman, Jordan, in 1995--both attended by Israeli business people and political figures.