Moscow Waffles, Washington Frets : Russian reassurances on commitment to reform fail to erase Western concern

Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin is scheduled to arrive in Washington today, bearing assurances from President Boris Yeltsin that despite recent signs that seem to suggest otherwise, Moscow remains committed to free-market reforms and good relations with the West. Those who put greater weight on deeds than on words might be excused for having their doubts.

Since last December’s parliamentary elections revealed a strong nostalgia for the reborn Communist Party, Yeltsin has been lurching leftward, purging his government of its most committed reformers. Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev was the first to be dumped, followed by privatization chief Anatoly Chubais. Yevgeny Primakov, a former official in the Soviet KGB and an advocate of a more assertive foreign policy, replaced Kozyrev. Then Yeltsin named Vladimir Kadannikov to succeed Chubais as first deputy prime minister for economic policy. Kadannikov has headed Russia’s largest auto maker since 1988. Despite huge protective tariffs on imported cars, his company, Avtovaz, is in deep financial trouble and reportedly has been unable to meet its payroll. His selection won’t reassure those in the West, including the International Monetary Fund, from which Russia seeks help in transforming its economy.

Secretary of State Warren Christopher, who plans to meet next month with Primakov, is among those expressing concern about Russia’s course. In a recent speech Christopher warned Moscow of the harmful consequences it invites if it rolls back economic reforms and adopts a more confrontational line in its international policies. Among the things on Moscow’s wish list that could soon be in jeopardy are membership in the Group of Seven, industrialized states that seek to cooperate in economic and political policies; admission to the World Trade Organization, and foreign loans.

Left unsaid in Christopher’s warning is that the United States unhappily has no alternative to Yeltsin. Though deeply unpopular, the ailing president is expected to seek reelection in June. With no other reformer currently given much of a chance in that election, and with apparent strong support for candidates on the extremes of the political spectrum, Yeltsin emerges if only by default as Washington’s man. Possibly one message Chernomyrdin will bring is that the apparent harder line coming from Moscow is chiefly for domestic consumption, and that Yeltsin can be trusted to become more accommodating after the election. Maybe.

But first Yeltsin has to win that election. It’s not too early for Washington to begin pondering the tough decisions it faces should a post-Yeltsin policy become inevitable.