Real Crisis Dims the Everyday Spats

Let me indulge, if you will, in a bit of high-level marriage counseling, pro bono. Call me a well-meaning do-gooder.

My clients are Japan and the United States, and what a fractious relationship they have had. But last week something traumatic happened that could make them (if they’d both just shut up for a minute) see reason and start to mellow out.

The trauma is courtesy of Taiwan the Untameable: In a historically unique election for an ethnic Chinese state--a universal secret ballot--the tiny island picked as its president the same 73-year-old politician, Cornell University alumnus Lee Teng-hui, whose pushy, Taiwan-first policies have been driving Beijing up the Great Wall.

Maybe the clarifying moment for Japan would have occurred even if Washington hadn’t pushed two mean and ugly aircraft carriers closer to Taiwan in response to China’s pointed military exercises. For with each angry Chinese rocket fired over the Taiwan Strait, Japan seemed to take another look at postwar partner Uncle Sam, as if coming closer to the very reluctant admission that maybe the Japanese-American marriage wasn’t so terrible after all.

But it’s still hard for Tokyo to accept this. On Friday, a top government official complained: “American policy is tilted toward the Atlantic.” Then another: “American policy in Asia is only about economics and trade. Its goal is solely to increase U.S. jobs through increased trade. President Clinton is only interested in domestic issues. His Asian policy lacks coherence.”

Well, they’re more right than wrong. I’ve said more or less the same thing myself. But last week’s tension over Taiwan sort of cohered U.S. Asian policy. “Our relationship with the United States is vital,” Japanese Foreign Minister Yukihiko Ikeda told me Friday, while adding: “But . . .the Japan-U.S. bilateral security relationship is vital for you, too. After all, the United States is a Pacific nation, as you, a Los Angeles Times columnist, especially know.”

Ikeda, widely respected in Japanese circles for his grasp of economics, is right. He understands that the decades-long American security guarantee was an absolute prerequisite for the East Asian miracle. Without it, would Japan have become the second-biggest economy in the world? Would Korea be on the edge of becoming a major regional power? Would Taiwan, with a measly 21 million people, have such a potent economy? Then there’s that other regional superpower, California, and it can’t complain, either: Last year the state’s overall export revenues grew to $96.6 billion, a record $16.6 billion of that with Japan alone, despite a soft economy. “America should just make sure that there are no more Okinawa incidents,” commented Ikeda, referring to the unspeakable rape of a 12-year-old Okinawan girl by American servicemen. He’s absolutely right again: Japanese and indeed Asian public opinion will turn against America and undermine the security relationship if U.S. military personnel behave like animals.

I sensed last week in some Tokyo circles, beneath all the complaints, at least some sentiment to begin emphasizing the positives in this great Pacific marriage. I asked Ikeda about the U.S.-Japan semiconductor agreement, which expires in July. This successful accord, renewed and expanded during the Bush Administration, helped open Japanese markets to foreign semiconductor sales by setting numerical goals for them in Japan. His official position (and a correct opening ploy, no doubt) is that the agreement should expire as scheduled. But some less-official voices speak differently.

The globe-trotting Takeshi Kondo, a well-known businessman with the Itochu Corp. who has good contacts in the Ryutaro Hashimoto government, thinks Japan would be crazy not to hand a continuance of the semiconductor accord on a platter to President Clinton: “Japan should face the reality that Clinton may very well win a second term. Forget whether we like him or not, we need to have a good relationship with him. So on this issue, I say Prime Minister Hashimoto needs to give Clinton what he wants. Extending it won’t really hurt Japan and it would make Clinton look good with the Japanese in his reelection. Then he might be grateful.”

Now we’re talking, Tokyo and Washington, now we’re talking. Maybe there is some life left in this marriage yet. The semiconductor issue is only one area of friction, but it’s as good a place to start the healing as any. Maybe we should thank big, unpredictable China for throwing its weight around, for causing some people in the neighborhood to lose a bit of sleep. Maybe it will get Japan to realizing that it could hold hands with a lot worse than Uncle Sam.

Tom Plate is traveling in Asia. His e-mail address is <tplate@ucla.edu>.