Lebanon Truce Could Be Near

After nine days of rockets, bombs and artillery fire that culminated in the catastrophic shelling of a U.N. compound, the Israeli, Syrian and Lebanese governments inched closer Friday to embracing a U.S. call for a cease-fire in Lebanon, but the outline of any possible settlement remained murky.

The chief question was whether the guerrillas of the Islamic group Hezbollah, whose rocket attacks Israel had hoped to halt when it launched its offensive April 11, would stop firing at northern Israel in exchange for a cessation of hostilities.

One day after the deadly bombardment of the U.N. compound in Qana, which killed at least 75 civilians, fighting slowly resumed in Israel and southern Lebanon on Friday.

The Iranian-backed Hezbollah, or Party of God, launched at least 65 Katyusha rockets into northern Israel on Friday, prompting Israeli air raids against suspected Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, especially in the southern coastal region near Tyre.

There were no confirmed casualties.

Prodded by President Clinton and awaiting Secretary of State Warren Christopher, who arrives in the Syrian capital of Damascus today, regional leaders indicated that a truce may begin this weekend and a settlement might be reached by next week.

In Israel, Prime Minister Shimon Peres met with senior State Department representative Dennis B. Ross and said a truce could come within 48 hours. “It’s not certain, but there is a chance,” he told Israeli television.

Traveling in Europe, Christopher got promises of cooperation, made by telephone, from Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh, State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns said.

Syria is the dominant power in Lebanon and, with its 35,000 or more troops here, is in a position to cut off Hezbollah’s supply routes from Iran and take other action to rein in the guerrillas.

“For the first time in the region, I begin to feel optimistic,” said French Foreign Minister Herve de Charette, who was visiting Syria to press for a cease-fire.

Before the Qana attack, Israel had insisted that its bombing campaign would continue until Lebanon clamped down on Hezbollah. The tragedy at the U.N. compound appeared to give fresh impetus to diplomatic efforts.

In a speech at Tel Aviv University on Friday, Peres displayed some flexibility on the issue of a withdrawal of the Israeli Defense Forces from some of the territory they occupy in southern Lebanon.

“We are prepared for the Lebanese army to reach the northern part of the [Israeli] ‘security zone,’ assert its control of the regular forces that exist there, including Hezbollah, then with a guarantee of the [Israeli-backed] Southern Lebanese Army’s position . . . to reach gradually an IDF withdrawal from various parts of the security zone, assuming the Lebanon army proves its ability to guarantee security,” he said.

At a news conference in Beirut, Hariri said his government had been in contact with Hezbollah and that he considers a truce likely by the middle of next week, based on a mutual cessation of hostilities. Lebanon has urged a peaceful solution since the beginning of the conflict, Hariri said, blaming Israel for previously having been unwilling to stop its military campaign.

Now that Israel appears willing to accept U.S. calls for a cease-fire, Hariri said, Hezbollah can be persuaded to stop its rocket attacks on northern Israel.

Hezbollah has always maintained that its rocket attacks were in retaliation for Israeli attacks on civilian areas; thus the guerrillas can claim victory and stop firing rockets without losing face among their followers if the Israeli action stops. The key, according to diplomats in Beirut, is how much pressure Syria will apply.

If Syrian President Hafez Assad reminds Hezbollah “who the boss is,” said one diplomatic source, the attacks on northern Israel will end within days.

The Lebanese government also indicated that Hezbollah would comply with any accord reached by the governments involved.

“When the government decides what to do and has talked to the Americans about this initiative and has some guarantees about the Israeli withdrawal from this land, I think Hezbollah will not be a problem,” government spokesman Obaid Mohammad said.

Also Friday, as they gathered for a summit on nuclear safety in Moscow, the United States, Russia, France, Japan, Canada, Germany, Italy and Britain made a joint appeal for a cease-fire.

“I think the parties have got to agree to a cease-fire,” Clinton said.

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In Washington on Friday, the State Department advised Americans abroad to “exercise greater than usual caution” with tensions and anti-American sentiments running high in the Middle East.

It said it had heard of no specific threats to U.S. citizens but “cannot discount the possibility of random acts of anti-American violence.”

U.S. diplomatic posts are taking security precautions, it said.

The department routinely issues travel warnings and advisories for specific countries or regions to warn tourists of health risks or threats of political or criminal violence.

Daniszewski reported from Beirut and Miller from Jerusalem.

* RAIN OF ARTILLERY

Some see shelling of civilians as tragedy waiting to happen. A8