NEWS ANALYSIS : Freedom From Katyushas Comes at Price

The residents of Kiryat Shemona and other northern Israeli towns should sleep peacefully tonight. They can expect to walk their streets Sunday without the threat of Katyusha rockets raining down on them from Hezbollah guerrillas across the border in Lebanon.

But this calm came dearly to Israel.

During its 16-day “Operation Grapes of Wrath” military campaign against the Iranian-backed militia in southern Lebanon, Israel launched 1,200 air force raids and fired 13,000 artillery shells, killing more than 150 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and forcing up to 500,000 out of their homes. As a result, Israel’s international reputation has been badly tarnished and its new standing as a partner in the region cast into doubt.

At the same time, the military operation and the understandings reached Friday to end the fighting have put Syrian President Hafez Assad--the dominant power in Lebanon--back on center stage in the Middle East, proving he holds the key to peace between Israel and Hezbollah, or the Party of God. Syria also won a commitment from Israel to resume bilateral peace talks in the near future.

For that, however, Assad had to commit himself to an American proposal that makes him a party to keeping Hezbollah in line.

The Muslim guerrillas won more popular support from the Lebanese people as a result of the Israeli operation. And Hezbollah hailed the U.S.-brokered agreement, which effectively lets the guerrillas keep fighting Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon for the time being.

But the accord makes it clear that the militia is at the mercy of Assad, a mere instrument in his dealings with Israel and the Americans.

The Lebanese proved to be right when they argued from the beginning that the solution to the conflict was political and not military. But the political solution confirmed that the government in Beirut is a puppet of Syria, and largely irrelevant.

In addition, Lebanon suffered the most serious economic damage from the fighting, and the Lebanese people put up the blood in the battle. Besides those killed, hundreds of Lebanese were wounded; no Israelis died, although dozens were injured.

Israel had much at stake in launching the 16-day conflict, as well as in its resolution. Prime Minister Shimon Peres ordered an attack on the capital of a neighboring country, risking lives and the reputation of the Israeli military with closely contested national elections just ahead.

Israel said it wanted to halt Hezbollah rocket fire on northern towns such as Kiryat Shemona, and the Israeli government most likely will accomplish that narrow goal. At least for a while. Israel also secured written rules of engagement that it hopes will bring a period of quiet lasting long enough to complete peace negotiations with Syria.

Friday’s accord prohibits Hezbollah attacks on Israeli civilians, Israeli fire on civilian targets in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s use of civilian and industrial areas as cover. As explicit as this may seem, it leaves a loophole through which the understandings will probably unravel one day: the guarantee for all parties of the right of self-defense.

The previous rules of engagement laid out in 1993 oral understandings on Lebanon banned attacks on civilians except in self-defense. But that frequently led to a chain of events in which Hezbollah would use Lebanese villages to attack Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon, Israel would respond by attacking Hezbollah in the villages, and Hezbollah would use that as a pretext to fire at civilians in northern Israel.

Incidents such as this led in large measure to Operation Grapes of Wrath. The risk is that it will happen again.

Israeli Foreign Minister Ehud Barak, a former army chief of staff, was insistent that if Hezbollah fighters again attack from civilian cover, Israel will exercise its right of self-defense and respond, as it did in the past. “First of all, we fire at anyone firing at us, in any place in Lebanon, including from within villages,” he said.

This time, a monitoring group made up of U.S., French, Syrian, Lebanese and Israeli members is supposed to address violations and prevent retribution, although how they will do this was not laid out.

Furthermore, the new agreement does not achieve the broader goal that Israel’s military, in particular, voiced at the height of the operation: to severely limit Hezbollah attacks on Israeli soldiers stationed in southern Lebanon.

U.S. and Israeli officials insist that they did not seek such an agreement.

“We were not trying to negotiate a [permanent] cease-fire between Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces,” said a U.S. official who asked not to be identified. “We were trying to develop understanding that we believe will last for a period of calm. And if Hezbollah should break that calm, then the IDF is free to act in self-defense.”

But early in the negotiations, the United States reportedly did suggest linking the end of Operation Grapes of Wrath to a sweeping agreement to disarm Hezbollah and get Israel out of southern Lebanon. Syria and Lebanon apparently would not hear of it.

Most political analysts say it should have been clear from the beginning that Syria and Lebanon never would agree to restrict Hezbollah attacks on Israeli soldiers occupying southern Lebanon, because that would be tantamount to legitimizing the Israeli presence there.

Syria also was not about to relinquish one of the strongest cards it holds in its separate peace negotiations with Israel.

Israel halted those negotiations after a series of bus bombings by Islamic extremists in February and March that left more than 60 dead. Some of the Palestinian radicals maintain offices in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

Friday’s accord resulted in a “firm commitment” to resume Syrian-Israeli negotiations, according to Uri Savir, director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry. Talks will restart “in the near future,” Savir said, but no firm date was set.

For all his muscle-flexing and the long waiting times he inflicted on U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher during negotiations, Assad guaranteed the understandings and agreed to an American plan to participate in the monitoring commission that is supposed to keep both Hezbollah and Israel in check.

Assad has been the spigot that turned on and off the Hezbollah fighting by controlling the delivery of weapons and materiel from Iran. When fighting escalated, he would stand back in the posture of an innocent bystander. Now, his participation in the commission assumes he will take a more active role in stopping it.

Peres is banking on this. Internally, Operation Grapes of Wrath has been deemed a success--one without Israeli fatalities. But Peres faces elections on May 29, and his fate could be determined by another barrage of Katyushas from Hezbollah.

Times staff writer John Daniszewski in Beirut contributed to this report.