Dispute Over Future of Serb Leader Roils Bosnia

The senior mediator in charge of implementing the Bosnian peace accord intensified his pressure Sunday on Radovan Karadzic, asserting that the Bosnian Serb leader has agreed to step down.

High Representative Carl Bildt was echoed by state-run television in Belgrade, the Serbian and Yugoslav capital. But the hard-liners who surround Karadzic at Bosnian Serb headquarters here insisted that their self-declared president is only relinquishing some of his duties.

The murky political scene emerging late Sunday showed both the increasing desperation of Western officials seeking to be rid of Karadzic, who has been indicted on war crimes charges, and the increasing determination of Bosnian Serb hard-liners to close ranks.

“We have a firm understanding that Dr. Karadzic will remove himself from public life and . . . will be neither seen nor heard,” Bildt spokesman Colum Murphy said in an interview.

Diplomats and others were quick to caution that a “firm understanding” is hardly enough of a commitment from as deft a survivor as Karadzic. Bildt too had doubts and is demanding a written agreement, Murphy said.

More to the point, Bosnian Serb television quoted one of Karadzic’s closest associates, Momcilo Krajisnik, as denying that Karadzic will step down.

“Such insinuations are unfounded,” the Bosnian Serbs’ SRNA television quoted him as saying. “This is one more premeditated method of pressure on the leadership of the Bosnian Serb Republic.”

Murphy said Karadzic’s purported verbal agreement came in a 5 1/2-hour predawn meeting between Bildt and three senior Bosnian Serb officials here in Pale, nine miles southeast of Sarajevo, the Bosnian capital.

And it came after Bildt sought help in dislodging Karadzic from Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, the onetime patron of the Bosnian Serbs who still, on occasion, can exert the influence required to control them.

Indeed, Belgrade television, which is controlled by Milosevic, reported definitively that Karadzic had “withdrawn” from his post. It referred to one of his vice presidents, Biljana Plavsic, as “acting president” of the Bosnian Serb Republic.

But Pale television and radio, controlled by Karadzic, quoted Krajisnik’s denial. Belgrade television can normally be viewed in Pale homes--but the signal can also be blocked by Pale authorities. Sunday night, the usual Belgrade newscast was abruptly replaced by Donald Duck cartoons.

Lost in the glaring focus on Karadzic, diplomats said Sunday, is the fact that even his removal will not subdue the many hard-liners who surround him and can easily continue his policies. The diplomats said they are concerned that Karadzic, taking advantage of his allies’ loyalty, would be able to exert control from behind the scenes.

“We’ve been so fixated on Karadzic that we may be in for a letdown when he leaves,” one Western diplomat said. “There will be other hard-liners to fill in.”

In the past few days, Karadzic fired his moderate prime minister for being too willing to cooperate with international peacemakers and then handed some of his duties over to Plavsic, who is considered an even more ardent nationalist than Karadzic.

But Bildt and other Western diplomats are hoping that a less visible Karadzic will give the peace plan, and a real opposition political movement among the Bosnian Serbs, a chance to prosper.

The international community’s strategy has been to drive a wedge into the Bosnian Serb leadership--and between the leadership and the people--by showing that Karadzic’s continued presence is a major handicap to economic postwar recovery.

But public signs that the strategy was working were few. Sunday night, SRNA began floating the idea of holding a referendum to determine whether Karadzic should continue as president. The Bosnian Serb leadership frequently resorts to the referendum tactic as a way to create the impression of public support for its predetermined plans.

Karadzic does have supporters here in Pale, a village now populated primarily by Bosnian Serb refugees and peasants.

*

As president of the Serbian Democratic Party, Karadzic led the Bosnian Serb revolt against Bosnia-Herzegovina’s declaration of independence from the disintegrating Yugoslav federation. At midnight on April 6, 1992, he proclaimed the Serbian Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, later to be renamed the Republika Srpska, and announced himself the head of state.

“He will not step down because we will never let him,” Drago Lazarevic, 58, said as he stood in animated conversation alongside one of Pale’s paved roads.

“He is our leader,” said Novica Lubarda, 60, a metal worker in Pale who spent 18 months in a Muslim jail. “If Karadzic leaves, another Karadzic will come. There are 1,000 Karadzices.”