N. Ireland Choosing Peace Delegates

Protestants and Catholics across a divided province voted in rain and apprehension Thursday in an election that could prove the catalyst for peace--or trigger volatile new frustration after generations of ethnic bloodshed.

A gray and soggy day marked by high winds and wintry temperatures seemed to match the mood as 1.1 million voters selected 110 delegates for a peace forum scheduled to open June 10 without any clear indication that it can be effective.

The election passed without violence in the six-county British province where communal warfare has claimed 3,200 lives since 1969.

With vote counting scheduled to begin today, two dozen political parties were left to gnaw anxiously overnight, wondering how the weather had influenced the turnout and their chances.

Four key parties--two Protestant and two Roman Catholic, with a moderate and a militant on each side--were expected, as usual, to dominate the vote. But the top 10 parties will be represented at the talks, and the key question remains whether one of them will be Sinn Fein, political arm of the outlawed Irish Republican Army.

Britain and Ireland, sponsors of the peace initiative, say Sinn Fein will be excluded June 10 if there is no restoration of the IRA cease-fire that was broken in February by bombings in London after 17 months of unaccustomed peace.

Sinn Fein, which claims about 10% of the vote, says it would be undemocratic to deprive the party of representation at the talks.

Analysts wonder what the talks can achieve if the party that speaks for the paramilitaries who have the most guns is not present.

Again siding with Britain and Ireland, the United States renewed its pressure on the IRA and Sinn Fein after a meeting in Washington on Wednesday between President Clinton and British Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind.

“We are concerned that the cease-fire’s not been reinstated on the eve of these historic elections,” the White House said, reporting that the two men “underscored the need for the IRA to restore the cease-fire so that Sinn Fein can participate in the talks.”

The importance of Thursday’s vote was clearer than whether the results can translate into constructive accords between a Protestant majority that wants continued close links with Britain and a Catholic minority seeking either union or some other form of ties with the Irish Republic.

“We have the best opportunity in 25 years to take the gun out of Irish politics forever. It’s up to everybody to do everything they can to achieve that,” said Catholic moderate John Hume in his last trawl for votes through his stronghold in Londonderry.

“It’s not a normal election, since the objective of it is to go directly to negotiations, to reach agreement between our divided people. We are not doing anything that would intensify disagreement,” he said.

Hume’s Protestant counterpart, David Trimble, said the election will “more than any other factor, determine the result of the talks.”

“This election will set the limit for discussion in the inter-party talks,” said Trimble, leader of the moderate Ulster Unionist Party, traditionally the province’s biggest.

British Prime Minister John Major broached the election in January in response to recommendations from an international commission headed by former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell (D-Maine).

In one of its key proposals, the Mitchell commission suggested that the IRA and Protestant terrorist groups begin surrendering their weapons as part of ongoing peace talks instead of before them, as Britain and Protestant parties had insisted during the cease-fire.

How to deal with arms surrender, or “decommissioning,” as it is delicately called, remains a major point of contention as Britain and Ireland try to agree on an agenda for the June 10 talks.

The IRA says it will not surrender its weapons. A militant Protestant party of British loyalists led by the Rev. Ian Paisley says it will not negotiate with Sinn Fein, headed by Gerry Adams.

Trimble’s party strongly backed the elections but may see its weight at talks diminished because of splintering among Protestants: a dozen loyalist parties were on Thursday’s ballot.

Because of the loyalist split, Hume’s moderate Catholic party may finish first when all the votes are counted. But Hume has tried repeatedly to get Sinn Fein to the table, and there is no assurance that he will negotiate with Trimble in Sinn Fein’s absence.