The Mixed Blessing of Lebed

The decisive voting bloc in next month’s presidential runoff election in Russia will be the one-third of the electorate that did not support either of the top two finishers in last Sunday’s balloting. Right now the odds seem to favor the reelection of President Boris Yeltsin, who got 35% of the vote against neo-Communist Gennady Zyuganov’s 32%. The big boost for Yeltsin came when he was able to bring Alexander Lebed into his camp within hours after the retired general drew nearly 15% of the presidential vote. Lebed’s endorsement of Yeltsin earned him appointment as head of the president’s Security Council and allowed an immediate demonstration of political clout. At Lebed’s behest, Yeltsin fired Defense Minister Pavel S. Grachev, architect of the Russian debacle in Chechnya and the man who sacked Lebed from the army for protesting that war.

Yeltsin has gone out of his way to publicly flatter Lebed, implying that he could be an eventual successor. Certainly no restraints of modesty are likely to impede Lebed’s advancement. Though a political neophyte, he is supremely self-confident and undisguisedly ambitious. If most of those who voted for him now back Yeltsin, the president will be deeply indebted. So much so, indeed, that Yeltsin might quickly perceive Lebed not as an asset to his government but as a rival to be contained.

In terms of Russia’s future, what’s to be wished for now is a Yeltsin victory by an impressive margin. Yeltsin and the cause of economic and political reform both have powerful enemies in the Parliament. If he wins the runoff only narrowly he surely must move to the right in an effort to pacify his opponents. That course would not be good for Russia’s political and economic future or for Moscow’s relations with the democratic world.

The voters of Russia showed in last Sunday’s multi-candidate presidential race how sharply divided they are between longing for the past and hope for the future. Next month’s two-man contest will present an even starker choice. Yeltsin, while less than the ideal democrat, represents the forces of beneficial change. Zyuganov speaks only for the repressive and discredited past.