Russian Rivals Jockey to Inherit Yeltsin’s Throne

Russian Prime Minister Viktor S. Chernomyrdin has wasted no time in putting new Security Council chief Alexander I. Lebed in his postelection place.

There is absolutely no need for the gruff retired general to take on the title of vice president, Chernomyrdin says, and he is equally dismissive of Lebed’s loud musings that he could help put the economy right.

“I am not going to give away anything to anyone,” Chernomyrdin replies when asked about Lebed’s bid to acquire authority in economic and social affairs.

Newly emboldened by a Kremlin call to propose a new government, Chernomyrdin is quickly establishing a strong position in an emerging power struggle with the maverick Lebed to succeed President Boris N. Yeltsin.

Since Yeltsin’s reelection to a second term slated to run to the year 2000, Lebed--the third-place finisher in the first round of the presidential election--has had his sails trimmed after serving the short-term electoral purpose of drawing his followers to the incumbent.

The president himself suggested during the tense period between the June 16 first round and the July 3 finale that Lebed might be suitable material for the previously nonexistent role of Kremlin understudy.

But in the few days since Yeltsin won a whopping 54% of the presidential vote to 40% for Communist challenger Gennady A. Zyuganov, the colorless Chernomyrdin is back in the picture as both the constitutionally designated successor and Yeltsin’s right-hand man.

Jockeying for position has been inordinately swift since Wednesday’s runoff because of nagging worries over the health of the 65-year-old Yeltsin. He has had two heart attacks in the past year, concedes a fondness for vodka and drove himself to exhaustion while campaigning.

Yeltsin failed to appear in public for the last week of the nerve-racking contest and has been seen since his victory only in carefully edited videotapes provided by the Kremlin.

That has prompted observers to speculate that his health is precarious and that he is unlikely to live out his term.

“But what does this tell us that we didn’t know already about what a second Yeltsin administration would be like?” asked Thane Gustafson, a Georgetown University professor and author of several books about the reforms sweeping Russia. He said he doubts that Yeltsin will survive to the end of his term.

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Diplomatic sources here say they have been informed by the Kremlin that Yeltsin will soon leave for Sochi, his Black Sea summer retreat, for an extended vacation. Visiting dignitaries will be received by the president at the government rest spot, but his absence from hectic Moscow is expected to allow him to recuperate from the grueling campaign.

Those watching the establishment of a new pecking order in Yeltsin’s reinvented Kremlin say the access accorded key players to the president while he’s on vacation will make clear which politician is on the fast track.

In past summers, Yeltsin kept company with bodyguard Alexander V. Korzhakov, but he was sacked in an abrupt housecleaning of security hawks in the final days before the runoff.

By virtue of his responsibilities as head of government, Chernomyrdin will undoubtedly shuttle between Moscow and Sochi, holding down the Kremlin fort in Yeltsin’s absence and serving as gatekeeper at the southern guest house.

Lebed, meanwhile, is due to visit Chechnya, where federal troops have bogged down in a 19-month-old war to suppress the republic’s quest for independence. Among the tasks handed the nationalist patriot with his appointment as Security Council chief was that of restoring peace in the shattered republic.

While some analysts believe Yeltsin is grooming Chernomyrdin as his heir apparent and will busy Lebed with reforming the oversized, undersupplied and demoralized army, others say the president is keeping his options open.

Andrei Vasilevsky, head of the Panorama news agency, points out that Lebed has been given a prominent role as chief crime-fighter, as well as military reformer, which could elevate his image among Russians.

Although Chernomyrdin enjoys the confidence of the Western leaders he has dealt with over the last three years, Lebed has won over many hearts and minds within Russia.

“Now that Zyuganov has lost the election, voters are not so worried about Yeltsin’s physical condition because many secretly hope that if worse comes to worst, there is already an acceptable successor waiting in the Kremlin,” Vasilevsky said of Lebed.

Lebed himself recently alluded to the possibility of succeeding Yeltsin should the president die in office. In an interview with a German newsmagazine just before the election, Lebed replied to a question about whether he saw himself as a contender in 2000 by saying, “Maybe even sooner.” He later dismissed his remarks as a joke that went over the Germans’ heads, but the humor may also have been lost on his Kremlin colleagues.

At a news conference last week, Chernomyrdin showed obvious disapproval of Lebed’s ambitions, observing that the general would do best to focus on security issues.

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Other potential rivals for the next presidency have suffered setbacks at their own hands.

Intellectuals have long considered that liberal economist Grigory A. Yavlinsky would be a wise choice to chart Russia’s economic turnaround and enhance the personal freedoms needed for a more thriving democracy. But Yavlinsky refused throughout Yeltsin’s battle with Zyuganov to advocate the incumbent, and that principled defiance appears to have lost him any chance of a role in the new leadership.

Ultranationalist Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky also saw his political stock tumble in the presidential election. He finished fifth in the first-round race among 10 contenders, collecting less than half the support his ill-named Liberal Democratic Party won during parliamentary elections in December.

One powerful figure, however, remains left for Chernomyrdin and Lebed to contend with.

Moscow Mayor Yuri M. Luzhkov won a stunning 91% of the vote for reelection during June 16 municipal elections. Some analysts point out that Luzhkov, a major backer of Yeltsin this time around, has amassed a huge following with his success in sprucing up this most dreary of world capitals.

“He has consolidated his position. No one could have predicted anyone could win more than 90% in a free election,” said Sergei Markov of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Adding the mayor’s name to those of Chernomyrdin and Lebed, he said that “these will be the major players in the coming weeks and months.”