Lebed Ties Political Fate to Chechen Peace Pact

With a masterful maneuver that promises to save face in the Kremlin and human life in Chechnya, Russian security chief Alexander I. Lebed on Saturday irrevocably hitched his political future to the fate of peace in the separatist southern republic.

Although skeptics warn that Lebed may have set himself up for a clash with nationalist opponents and even with President Boris N. Yeltsin, his securing of an agreement to end more than 20 months of bloodshed without committing Moscow to granting Chechen independence has been greeted with approval, relief, hope and even jubilation.

Yeltsin, however, offered no public congratulations Saturday to Lebed for his role in negotiating what can be claimed as a moral victory by both sides in the most deadly conflict in Russia since World War II.

The predawn peace pact reached between Lebed and Chechen military chief of staff Aslan Maskhadov, calling for demilitarization of the shattered republic and a cooling-off period of as long as five years before the sovereignty question is decided, “needs additional consideration and assessment,” Yeltsin spokesman Sergei V. Yastrzhembsky told reporters in Moscow.

He said Yeltsin, who is away on vacation and rumored to be ailing, was awaiting “details” before passing judgment on the agreement. But others proclaimed it a major step toward halting a blood bath that has killed at least 30,000 and humiliated Russian federal forces.

The 65-year-old president has made a practice of remaining aloof on volatile issues such as Chechnya, and many interpreted his silence as simply keeping his options open.

“The president will be very guarded in what he does with this agreement,” said Pavel Felgengauer, military analyst for the daily newspaper Sevodnya. “The Chechens might interpret it as giving them semi-independence, and Yeltsin cannot be seen as supporting anything like that.”

By separating the cease-fire and interim governing arrangements from the issue of whether Chechnya will remain part of Russia, the new pact frees both sides from the need for formal capitulation.

“The postponing aspect allows both sides to maintain their positions,” said Tim Guldimann, who helped mediate the agreement for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

“There is nothing in the agreement that would contradict [Chechen rebels’] aspiration of getting independence. But on the other side, there are no indications that [the Kremlin] will move in the direction of independence,” he said by telephone from Grozny, the Chechen capital. “Everything remains open.”

Russian forces have withdrawn from Grozny and submitted to joint police patrols with the rebels in the capital. Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency said some of the vehicles carrying both Chechen and Russian police officers were flying “Republic of Ichkeria” banners, suggesting that the Russians have accepted Chechen self-rule.

“This agreement is a very transparent fig leaf to hide the Russian military defeat and political fiasco in Chechnya,” said Dzhabrail Z. Gakayev, director of the Chechen Cultural Center in Moscow and a professor of anthropology. “As a military man, Lebed could not help but see that Russian troops could never seal any military success in this war.”

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Lebed conceded during the first of five recent forays into Chechnya that the disastrous state of the Russian army denied it the “luxury” of waging war.

The increasingly popular retired general--who finished third in this spring’s first-round presidential election before being drafted by the Yeltsin team--has so far succeeded in his effort to reshape Kremlin policy on Chechnya: moving it away from pursuit of a military victory and toward silent recognition that Moscow has little choice but to cede Chechnya to the rebels.

Chechen fighters, who now number no more than a few thousand, managed to recapture Grozny during a surprise raid that began Aug. 6 and inflicted massive casualties on the Russian side.

Humiliated and exhausted by the protracted David-and-Goliath conflict, two weeks later the Russian troops were driven out and surrounded, forcing Moscow to accept a cease-fire and rebel control of most of the republic.

Chechens and Russians alike cheered Lebed for negotiating a breathing space for the battle-weary residents of the shattered republic, but some observers warn that his political fortunes are now riding on the success of what could prove an unwieldy agreement.

“The higher he flies, the harder he may fall,” Gakayev observed. “Lebed may have achieved peace in Chechnya too fast and too simply for it to last.”

Felgengauer, the defense analyst, noted that Lebed will be a convenient scapegoat in the event Chechen extremists refuse to abide by a pact negotiated by the more moderate Maskhadov or if nationalists in Moscow brand Yeltsin a traitor for appearing to give up Russian territory.

Guldimann described the Saturday agreement as an encouraging advance toward a stable Chechnya.

“What is important is that it is quiet now,” he said, adding that armed checkpoints, curfews and other signs of war have receded.