Latest Gulf Crisis Begins the Partition of Kurdistan

In the aftermath of Iraq’s invasion of its Kurdish north and the U.S. response, the breakup of Kurdistan has begun.

The fragmentation of the rugged and remote northern Iraqi enclave creates opportunities that are already being exploited by neighboring Iran and Turkey, creating even more volatility in the region. And, as a result, a complex situation could soon become even messier.

The central problem, analysts say, is the power vacuum left by the failure of the Kurds to govern themselves--and the decision by the United States not to intervene directly to enforce order. Although a primary U.S. goal has always been to keep Iraq in one piece, the Clinton administration’s aversion to more risky entanglements in the region leaves the area open to other foreign powers.

Iran and Turkey are both moving to build de facto security zones inside the once-autonomous enclave. Iraq also has a foothold again after a five-year absence, through its surrogates in the Democratic Party of Kurdistan, one Kurdish faction.

“Kurdistan is effectively being partitioned, which is not good for either the territorial integrity or sovereignty of Iraq,” said Phebe Marr, an Iraq expert at National Defense University in Washington.

Tehran now sees an opportunity to protect itself against Iranian Kurd dissidents, who have been launching small but deadly attacks on Iran from a base near Koi Sanjak.

“The lack of effective control” in northern Iraq has resulted in “intensified terrorist attacks in recent weeks on Iranian border cities,” Tehran said in a letter to the U.N. explaining an Iranian troop incursion into the region this summer.

The Iranians also see a chance to exert more influence inside Iraq and solicit support among the Kurdish population.

Following the model established in Lebanon in the early 1980s, Tehran is setting up education facilities and charities. It is building a Shiite mosque. And Marr said that Iran has helped the Islamic Movement of Iraqi Kurdistan, which is now the third largest party in Kurdistan.

“Iran is engaged more in missionary than military activities,” a U.S. official said. “It’s creating an infrastructure through which it can create allies and counter the Iranian Kurds.”

After retaliating six weeks ago for a two-day raid by anti-Iranian Kurds, Iranian troops also left behind weaponry in Kurdistan for the faction it favors in the internecine struggle, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, according to U.S. intelligence.

After Iraq’s aggression, Iran is likely to work even harder to create a buffer zone, analysts predicted. Iran is likely to feel more exposed since Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has increased his strength near the Iraq-Iran border.

Tehran and Baghdad, which fought one of the region’s bloodiest wars between 1980 and 1988, still do not have a formal cease-fire pact.

“Physically and politically, Hussein is back operating in a region close to the border with Iran,” said Shaul Bakhash, an Iran specialist at George Mason University. “There’s now a real danger that Iran may be sucked more deeply into Kurdistan because of worry about what’s happened--and what could happen.”

But while eager to exploit new opportunities, both Iran and Turkey see dangers in the Kurdish turmoil.

“Both have on several occasions expressed concern about Iraq’s territorial integrity, because its breakup would set an ominous precedent for their own multiethnic societies,” Bakhash said.

The Kurdish political factions, though violently at odds with each other, share the cause of a Kurdish homeland stretching across four Middle East states.

Kurdistan’s chaos has given Turkey a greater opportunity to flex raw power in the region. Ankara launched an airstrike Thursday in northern Iraq, the latest in a series of forays against leftist insurgents of the Kurdistan Workers Party, which is seeking independence for Kurds living in Turkey.

Since the mid-1980s, Turkey’s Kurds have been waging a war against heavy-handed suppression of a culture, language and identity dating back more than two millenniums. Analysts say Turkey has been steadily creating a quasi-permanent buffer zone along the shared border because of its problem with the Kurdistan Workers Party.

Analysts said they expect a more visible Turkish presence in northern Iraq.

“The Turks are in the process of physically pushing the boundary lines into Iraq. Over the past year they have forced the evacuation of several villages and thousands of people deeper into northern Iraq,” said Henri Barkey of Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pa., a specialist on Iraq and the Kurds.

“I’m worried about the disappearance of northern Iraq as a viable entity, which it was in the early 1990s,” he said.

The Turkish and Iranian buffer zones could well be a part of Kurdistan’s political environment indefinitely, some experts predicted.

“The Kurds have been so fractious and tribalized for such a long time,” said James Placke, a former U.S. envoy in Baghdad, “that there is little prospect they will be able to work together to fill the vacuum.”

Times staff writer William D. Montalbano in Ankara contributed to this report.

* KURD RIVALS BATTLE: Factions open fire and Turkey declares buffer zone plans. A6