Hard to Predict Their Futurity

Two-year-old racehorses are like teenagers everywhere. All the good breeding in the world won’t guarantee they won’t, so to speak, run off with a rock band or join the circus or drop out generally and spend the rest of their lives breaking your heart.

But, then, of course, some of them pay attention to business, join the establishment, make a name for themselves and succeed in business beyond your wildest expectations.

Trying to figure out which is which will drive you up a wall, and it’s a job horse trainers face all the time. Have they got another Secretariat in their barns or just another goof-off who will spit the bit, jump shadows, stop at the end of six furlongs, chuck the rat race and say the hell with it? Will he (or she) be going on to win the Kentucky Derby or be running after a whole bunch of claiming horses at a border track at Laredo?

A “Futurity” by its very definition is an attempt to separate the men from the boys--or the women from the girls. A gauge to help you see who’s serious about this business and who wants to go home at 5 o’clock.

The Del Mar Futurity has not always been a harbinger for the classic races of next year--the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and the Belmont. But it had its moments.

Back in 1959, the first Kentucky Derby I ever saw was won by Tomy Lee, who had also won the Del Mar Futurity--the first horse ever to make that significant double.

Only one other has: Gato Del Sol, who took both races and got away in the 1982 Kentucky Derby at 22-1 because it wasn’t supposed to happen. The guys in the backstretch don’t pay enough attention to the Del Mar Futurity. Tomy Lee paid $9.40 his winning year. The hardboots liked First Landing to win that one.

In 1990, the great gelding, Best Pal, one of California’s greatest, won the Del Mar but got away at 5-1 in the Kentucky Derby largely because he had run second in the Santa Anita Derby. They pay attention to the Santa Anita Derby. He ran second at Kentucky too, and could have won with a better trip.

Two years ago, Timber Country was third in the Del Mar, then also third in the Kentucky Derby. And then he won the Preakness. Go figure.

And, last year, Cavonnier finished third in the Del Mar, then ran second and was beaten only by a head at Kentucky.

Diabolo, Futurity winner in 1974, had the distinction--or disgrace, if you will--of bumping Avatar out of all chance in the Kentucky Derby when both horses traded shoves in the stretch to hand the race to Foolish Pleasure. Avatar was second, Diabolo third.

So, attention must be paid. This Grade II stake on closing day at Del Mar could be a curtain-raiser on a grand career.

Or, it could be the start of something small.

They loaded a pretty impressive set of runners into the starting gate at Del Mar on Wednesday. Swiss Yodeler, a royally bred chestnut with a pedigree stretching back to Damascus, had won five races, every one he ever ran in. He was the chalk. He went off as favorite.

But, if you know race-trackers, you know this only makes them suspicious. Around a track, the prevailing take on a winner is the standard curl of the lip. “Yeah, but who’d he beat?!” Or even “He beat nuthin!” They probably said it about Man O’ War. It’s considered unprofessional to be impressed.

So, poor Swiss Yodeler was like a guy playing to a heckler audience. He kept winning, they kept wrinkling their noses. He must have begun to feel like the guy saying “Hey, guys, these are the jokes!”

But the joke was on him. Swiss Yodeler now better hope third is still the charm it was to Cavonnier and Timber Country. Because that’s where he finished. He was a well-beaten show, run down in the stretch by a pair of stablemates called Silver Charm and Gold Tribute, precious metals belonging to Bob and Beverly Lewis. The skeptics were right.

So, do we now reserve next year’s roses for either of these worthies who shuffled Swiss Yodeler back 3 1/2 lengths at the end? Well, the railbirds can now turn their attention to their shortcomings.

It’s pretty easy. Gold Tribute, who was only a head behind the winner, Silver Charm, has never won a race. Silver Charm has now won two.

But that’s the beauty of a Futurity. It’s the ultimate crapshoot. The winning owner, Bob Lewis, paid $725,000 for the colt who ran second and $80,000 for the winner. Racehorses are notorious non-respecters of bottom lines. Or dollar signs.

Owner Lewis even had to fight off a tempting offer to unload Silver Charm at a sizable profit. But it was like putting your kid out for adoption because he brought home a lousy report card. “He left it up to me,” trainer Bob Baffert acknowledged. “He said, ‘I don’t want to sell, but if you think we should. . . .’ ”

Baffert came around to thinking they shouldn’t.

Is Silver Charm now ready to join Tomy Lee and Gato Del Sol, a horse for the ages?

Well, Baffert had Cavonnier last year, finished third in this race and then came within a head bob of winning the Kentucky Derby. Finishing third can still be a ray of hope for Swiss Yodeler. In addition to Cavonnier and Timber Country going from third to history, Snow Chief finished third in 1985 and went on to win the Preakness.

Any parent can tell you. Some go on to become president. And others go on to become the president’s brother.