Dole Staring at the Storied Snowball’s Chance in New England : Yankees are underwhelmed by the GOP candidate, polls and interviews show. He’s running up against a booming economy and changing attitudes.

Bob Dole should have Fred Caliri’s vote in his hip pocket.

Caliri, 79, is a World War II vet, the recipient of a Purple Heart and a Bronze Star for valor. He lives in a state known for its stalwart Republicanism and, though a registered independent, he places a high value on family values, tax cuts and smaller government.

“The way it is right now,” said Caliri, a retired Army officer with 33 years of service, “I’m pretty much undecided come November, but I’m leaning toward Clinton.”

He pushed his beer aside, choosing his words carefully. His two friends at the bar of the Elks Lodge nodded in agreement.

“First thing,” he said, “it looks to me that Dole’s using his war record to get sympathy. Second thing, I don’t see he’s done that much in 35 years in Congress. So why would he make a good president just because he’s got a new title? As for Clinton, he’s been OK. Not good, not really bad. And if he did inhale, well, bless him.”

Caliri’s lack of enthusiasm for Dole’s presidential bid is widespread in New England, where changing attitudes, a lessening of ideological fervor and strong local economies are eroding a tradition in most of the region’s six states of rock-ribbed support for the GOP. From Presque Isle, Maine, to Bridgeport, Conn., polls show Clinton is poised to score a substantial victory Nov. 5.

“I feel kind of safe with Clinton,” said Shirley St. Hilaire, Claremont’s barber and a registered independent.

“He’s got people working again, feeling more ambitious. Things are moving along. But Dole? He just doesn’t do anything for me. I can’t see that he’s got anything new to say.”

Clinton won all six New England states and their 35 electoral votes in 1992, joining Lyndon B. Johnson as the only Democrat to ever do so. With Clinton scoring well with women and independents, several statewide polls taken in mid-September showed the president not only is likely to repeat his sweep, but to do so with margins of victory that far surpass his showings four years ago. And that, in turn, could imperil a range of Republicans further down the ticket.

In New Hampshire, Clinton won by a single percentage point over then-President Bush in 1992; in the recent statewide poll, he led Dole by 21 percentage points. In Maine, another state the GOP once could count on, Clinton was ahead by 15 points. In Vermont, which Clinton carried by a comfortable 16 points in 1992, his margin a few weeks ago was a whopping 34.

Taking nothing for granted, Clinton followed up Sunday’s debate between the presidential candidates in Hartford, Conn., with a rally Monday in Stamford, Conn., where he officially garnered the endorsements of about 2,500 business leaders from throughout the country. He then traveled to New Hampshire and Maine for additional campaign stops.

Recent interviews with several New Hampshire voters found that while support for Clinton frequently is tepid, Dole faces a double whammy in trying to lure voters to his banner. First, he must overcome a feeling that his party has marched too far to the right, abandoning the more moderate brand of Republicanism that predominated in New England. And he must accomplish this within an upbeat economic climate that strongly favors an incumbent.

“You’ve got to say Clinton’s got a mixed record,” said Paul DeBois, who runs a used clothing shop on Claremont’s Pleasant Street. “But at least he isn’t under the influence of the religious right like Dole. Extremists scare me. Oh, I know they can be charming. I saw [Dole primary opponent Patrick J.] Buchanan once and even he was charming, but I still wouldn’t want him near my children.”

Republican candidates at the local level have picked up on this attitude, and many are rushing toward the center of the political debate. “I ask people, ‘What’s the matter with being a good Republican with a social conscience?’ ” said Claremont’s state representative, Dick Krueger, a bit defensively.

Dole also faces the hurdle of convincing New England voters that, despite much current evidence to the contrary, their economies need fixing. For instance, Claremont--population 15,000--is seeing the results of an ambitious economic revitalization plan.

Perhaps for such reasons, the cornerstone of Dole’s economic agenda--his call for a 15% cut in income tax rates--has been greeted by many New Englanders as little more than a campaign gimmick.

If Dole’s proposal should have resonated anywhere, it was New Hampshire, which has no state or sales tax and has always had an aversion to tax-raising candidates. But the proposal has fallen on deaf ears.

John Simpson, sitting in a rocking chair on the sidewalk by his antique shop, laughs aloud when asked his reaction to the tax cut plan. “Come on,” he said, “everyone knows that’s poppycock. You can’t do it, can’t get it through Congress. These guys should give voters credit for having a few brains.”

Besides, he said, the economy has boomed since New England pulled out of the recession that helped cause Bush’s defeat four years ago. Unemployment in Claremont is down to a paltry 2.5%; a lumber mill, a steel fabrication plant and a propane gas distributor have moved into town, and New Hampshire not only has regained all the jobs lost in the recession, it has increased employment by 20%.

Such statistics make Dole’s warnings that the economy is structurally unsound an especially hard sell.

“See that lady across the street?” said Henry Thomas, who is employed at a manufacturing plant. “I just got her a job where I work. I told her there were jobs and she just walked in and got hired. A person wants to work today, there’s plenty of jobs. That’s what you elect a president on--jobs.”

“Clinton hasn’t been a great president, but I think voters are happy with the status quo,” added Steve Marro, executive director of an economic development council for Sullivan County, which includes Claremont. “When things are going good, who wants to make a change?”

The likelihood of a big Clinton victory in New Hampshire threatens to not only undermine gains the Republicans made in state elections in 1994, but deal the party a host of setbacks.

Jeanne Shaheen, a state senator, is given a good chance of becoming New Hampshire’s first Democratic governor in 16 years, filling a job vacated by two-term GOP Gov. Steve Merrill. And Republican Sen. Robert C. Smith, once a strong favorite for reelection, is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from Dick Swett, who lost his House seat just two years ago.

Similarly, the Dole deficit in their states is causing headaches for GOP candidates seeking open Senate seats in Maine and Rhode Island, now occupied by Republican William S. Cohen and Democrat Claiborne Pell, respectively. And in Massachusetts, the likelihood of a huge Clinton win could prove too strong a current to swim against for popular Republican Gov. William F. Weld, who is trying to unseat Democratic Sen. John Kerry.