The Hand That Rocks the Kremlin Still Belongs to President Yeltsin

He is clearly ill, disturbingly absent and perhaps not long for this world, but President Boris N. Yeltsin’s latest maneuverings suggest that he still calls the shots in the Kremlin and wants to define the course that Russia will follow even after he is gone.

The sacking last week of maverick Security Council chief Alexander I. Lebed--and his replacement with the congenial and unifying figure of Ivan P. Rybkin--was a classic Yeltsin maneuver aimed at discrediting Lebed in his bid to become Kremlin heir apparent by branding him a disrespectful renegade. Lebed’s brash style and unbridled ambitions offended Yeltsin and most of the political establishment.

Yeltsin’s preference for presidential understudy remains unclear, even as the 65-year-old president remains secluded at a suburban sanatorium preparing to undergo heart surgery as soon as mid-November.

Yeltsin’s authority has proved remarkably resilient throughout a political career as replete with downfalls as triumphs, probably because of his precise sense of what issues and emotions move the Russian people.

By casting Lebed as an impertinent upstart shamelessly campaigning for a job that is not yet open, the ailing Yeltsin may hope to secure public backing for the firing. In Russia, mud flies freely among the able-bodied, but even politicians are expected to show some respect for the infirm.

Yeltsin and his influential chief of staff, Anatoly B. Chubais, who is executing the president’s political thrusts and parries during Yeltsin’s current absence from the Kremlin, are gambling that Yeltsin’s health will hold out long enough for Lebed to make further political miscalculations.

If held too soon, new presidential elections might allow the ousted security chief to exploit an underdog image enhanced by his firing.

The strategy to marginalize Lebed also depends on the Kremlin’s ability to safeguard the popular retired general’s crowning achievement--the shaky cease-fire and peace settlement he engineered in the separatist republic of Chechnya--and stave off rumored unrest in the beleaguered army.

Yeltsin and his new security chief got surprisingly swift votes of confidence from key players in both areas of concern.

Akhmed Zakayev, Rybkin’s Chechen counterpart as head of security for the rebel forces, declared himself optimistic about the prospects for advancing the peace process in Chechnya after Rybkin vowed that there would be no retreat from the terms of the Aug. 31 settlement negotiated by Lebed.

Newly appointed Chechen Prime Minister Aslan Maskhadov, the rebels’ former chief of staff, also said he was confident that the war-shattered republic’s problems could be overcome as long as further violence was avoided.

Probably on cue from Yeltsin, Defense Minister Gen. Igor N. Rodionov moved quickly to tamp down fears inspired by Lebed that Russia’s army is on the verge of revolt.

“The situation in the armed forces is rather complicated, first of all because of the lack of regular funding. But in spite of these problems, the situation is fully under control,” Rodionov told Russian television.

Politicians here and abroad who have an interest in seeing Yeltsin ride out the current political tempest have added their voices to the chorus assuring Russians that Lebed’s dismissal was deserved, or at least to have been expected.

U.S. Defense Secretary William J. Perry told journalists after returning to Washington from a visit to Russia last week that he believed Yeltsin was personally responsible for bringing the political wrangling under control.

Boris Y. Nemtsov, the popular governor of Nizhny Novgorod and another potential Kremlin successor, called Lebed’s blatant campaigning in anticipation of Yeltsin’s death “blasphemy.”

“The general had a burning desire to become the president of Russia before the year 2000,” Nemtsov said of Lebed. “This runs counter to the common sense of Christianity and does not fit into any political framework.”

Nemtsov also criticized Lebed for joining forces with former KGB Gen. Alexander V. Korzhakov, a shadowy figure in the arms and favor-trading networks who was Yeltsin’s bodyguard until he was ousted in June.

Korzhakov is running for the parliamentary seat that Lebed gave up when he was named Security Council chief, and Lebed endorsed Korzhakov for what analysts speculate is a need for financing and an insider’s knowledge of the Kremlin.

Having served as security chief for only four months, Lebed remains a political novice in questionable company and is now deprived of a prominent pulpit from which to preach against his rivals.

Even independent media have tended to back the president in his fending off political flak from Lebed, who was brought into the Kremlin in June at least in part for the short-term purpose of boosting Yeltsin’s reelection chances.

Lebed said after his sacking that he will not seek another elected office before the next presidential race in 2000.

However, if he wants a springboard for that campaign, he may have to reverse course and run against Korzhakov for the parliamentary seat he only recently gave up or for the gubernatorial post in his power base of Tula that comes up for grabs in December.

Lebed now ranks in opinion polls as the most trusted politician in Russia by a wide margin because of his Chechnya achievement, but that standing may slip once he is out of the limelight and vulnerable to the systematic dismantling of his credibility that can be expected from all directions.

Powerful financial and strategic forces are at work bolstering Yeltsin’s efforts to knock Lebed from the crown prince podium on which he has climbed.

Prime Minister Viktor S. Chernomyrdin, who is also maneuvering to succeed Yeltsin but with more tact, has the president’s confidence and a reasonably impressive track record, despite a dearth of charisma and possession of what many Russians consider ill-gotten wealth.

Chubais, though under fire from Lebed as Yeltsin’s “regent,” has shown himself to be a shrewd strategist and has not covered his contempt for the unpolished former soldier.

Confronted with Chernomyrdin’s power and money and Chubais’ political savvy, Lebed may find himself overwhelmed in the next skirmish for Kremlin power before the official battle begins.