Fall '96 Is Only Fair to Middling

By BRIAN LOWRY

Nov. 6, 1996 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

Question: What do the television networks and the Dodgers have in common?

Answer: Both began their seasons with high hopes and suffered from a shortage of hits.

That’s the early appraisal seven weeks into the 1996-97 television season, which thus far hasn’t seen any new shows really catch fire.

Though it’s premature to make pronouncements on most rookie series (a few didn’t even premiere until October), as prime time sifts through its own election returns there are few outright winners and losers. Instead, the class of ’96 offers a gray mass of programs doing well enough to hang on for awhile but not performing at levels that provide any sort of long-term security.

“At this point the shows that have been canceled have been all-out disasters, but you have a whole bunch of shows that are sort of in the mid-range area, where the network might have hoped they’d be doing better by now but they’re not a drag on the lineup,” said Betsy Frank, who monitors programming for ad agency Zenith Media.

Such analysis can’t be predicated solely on raw numbers but must take into account pre-season expectations and the time periods in which programs are seen.

Some of the highest-rated new programs, for example, potentially look like what are known as “time-period hits”--shows whose success at this point hinges on the program preceding them.

“If you look at the history of television, there were very few hit shows that didn’t start in protected time periods,” said NBC program planning & scheduling senior vice president Preston Beckman. “The problem is there aren’t that many protected time periods anymore.”

This season’s two best slots belong to NBC’s “Suddenly Susan,” the Brooke Shields sitcom that follows “Seinfeld,” and ABC’s “Spin City,” the Michael J. Fox series that follows “Home Improvement.” They are not surprisingly the year’s highest-rated newcomers, but as the season has progressed, each has retained less audience from the hit it followed.

“I think it’s more ‘lukewarm’ than ‘hot,’ ” Chuck Bachrach, of ad agency Rubin Postaer & Associates, said assessing “Spin City.” “I thought it would be stronger.”

Similarly, CBS’ most highly touted new program, “Cosby,” started with whiz-bang numbers but drifted down in subsequent weeks, drawing ratings comparable to what “The Nanny” averaged in the same time period a year ago.

Asked to lead off a night without a known lead-in, the Bill Cosby vehicle wins its time period convincingly overall but is now running neck-and-neck with NBC’s “The Jeff Foxworthy Show” in the younger demographics that dictate advertising rates, where both trail Fox’s “Melrose Place.”

CBS has a lower-profile hit, in fact, with “Early Edition”--the season’s highest-rated new drama, which is seen Saturdays sandwiched between “Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman” and “Walker, Texas Ranger.”

Two shows performing marginally well--ABC’s “Life’s Work” and NBC’s “Something So Right”--are scheduled between returning hits Tuesdays. Both have been ordered for additional episodes carrying into next year, as NBC will do with most of its new comedies.

Despite quick hooks on a few shows, the networks have sought to exercise patience. Of 29 new programs scheduled this fall on the four major networks (10 more were introduced by WB and UPN), four have been canceled: Fox’s “Lush Life” and “Love & Marriage,” ABC’s “Common Law” and CBS’ “Public Morals.” Three others--”EZ Streets,” “Party Girl” and “Big Deal”--were pulled due to low ratings but will return.

The networks can find encouragement in that they were able to “open” shows--that is, generate initial sampling--as NBC did with its Saturday night “thrillogy” of “Dark Skies,” “The Pretender” and “Profiler.” NBC had an advantage thanks to the Olympics, but the other networks’ ability to introduce shows was a concern based on low summer viewing and gradual loss of audience to cable and other alternatives.

Yet viewers have just as quickly abandoned programs after giving them a look-see. “Dark Skies” and “Dangerous Minds” are among those to have faded in the wake of promising starts.

Fox’s “Millennium”--buoyed by heavy promotion during the World Series--also premiered with that network’s highest rating ever for a new drama but lost a third of those viewers in its second telecast. Zenith’s Frank indicated the opening was inflated and last week’s rating was closer to projections for the show.

Most observers generally agree there have been few surprises. NBC’s “Profiler” has perhaps proved stronger than anticipated slugging it out with CBS’ “Walker” Saturdays, while ABC’s “Sabrina, the Teenage Witch” has outshined the more-heralded movie adaptation “Clueless.” Both sitcoms do well with kids and teenagers but so far “Sabrina” has exhibited more skill conjuring up adults as well.

While the season’s top new series may be falling short of predictions, some low-rated shows are actually doing better than expected.

CBS’ “Promised Land” has garnered respectable results Tuesdays against “Mad About You” and “Roseanne”--albeit by appealing to an older audience less desirable to advertisers. In the same vein “Moloney,” with Peter Strauss, is at least “keeping the lights on,” as programmers say, versus “Seinfeld” after some prognosticators tagged the show for early cancellation.

Executives say preemptions brought about by baseball and election coverage have made it harder to judge the current season. CBS’ “Ink,” for example, premiered against a World Series game, and the network is confident more viewers will gradually find the Ted Danson comedy. NBC’s Saturday lineup also declined after being interrupted by baseball.

It’s worth noting as well that shows don’t always take off immediately. Programs such as “The Nanny” and “The X-Files” slowly gained popularity, and even “Friends” didn’t really hit its stride until NBC ran the show after “Seinfeld.” Returning series moving into the “hit” column this season appear to include “Touched by an Angel” and “The Drew Carey Show,” both achieving audience growth in new time periods.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Test Your Rating Strength Awesome:

Stay tuned

Groovy:

* Suddenly Susan

* Spin City

* Early Edition

* Sabrina, the Teenage Witch

* Millennium

Decent:

* Cosby

* Profiler