A Place in the Asian Sun Is Secure

TAIPEI, Taiwan — And then there were none.

Will Taiwan’s diplomatic countdown ever go that far? What if pressure from Beijing diminishes the list of Taipei’s diplomatic allies to zero?

Those disturbing questions come to mind as the dust settles over South Africa’s break in diplomatic relations with Taiwan, leaving only 29 relationships for the world’s 15th largest trading nation.

In the riddle of “12 Little Indians, All in a Row,” they are eliminated one by one until “there were none.”

That fate is not likely to befall Taiwan and every effort must be made to ensure that it does not. But the reality is that China, using the leverage of upcoming control of Hong Kong and over which foreign consulates remain there, is drawing a bead on more countries. Its strategy to isolate Taiwan, which it regards as a “renegade province,” proceeds.

The world did not end for Taiwan with Pretoria’s derecognition. Certainly, Taiwan’s leaders are not going to go into a psychological funk if Panama jumps ship someday soon. Nor does the future depend on Paraguay’s diplomatic credentials. Nor Haiti’s. And so on down the line.

A token number of official diplomatic missions is desirable but not essential. Relations with the United States, Japan, Canada and some other nations--perhaps ultimately South Africa--have prospered without official diplomatic imprimatur. The private masquerade-like organizations, which these friends have established, serve all the functions of embassies in addressing the realities of the David (Taiwan) and Goliath (Beijing) standoff.

For example, few countries have economic relations with the United States as close as those seen in the annual meeting last month in Taipei of the Republic of China and U.S. economic organizations. The combined memberships were addressed by President Lee Teng-hui and heard remarks from the American delegation leader, defense industry superstar Daniel Tellep, Lockheed Martin’s CEO.

And Taipei should have no inferiority complex about its place in the Asian sun, no matter how few foreign flags are flying here officially. In a poll published in the Oct. 25 edition of the magazine Asiaweek, Taipei ranked sixth on a standard-of-living index among Asian cities with populations of more than 1 million, just behind Tokyo, Singapore, Osaka, Hong Kong and Kuala Lumpur but ahead of Bangkok, Beijing, Seoul, Manila and Shanghai.

Although Taiwan has reason to be disappointed with South Africa’s move, it can hardly be said that the rupture was not expected at some point. The earlier breaks with the United States and South Korea were certainly more jolting. Yet, relations with Washington are on an extremely sound basis and there is a glimmer of improvement with Seoul. Nor can Taiwan be too hard on Nelson Mandela, who at least gave an interim period through Jan. 1, 1998, until the South African break becomes official. There is time to make the best of a difficult situation.

Taiwanese invest in more than 600 private firms in South Africa, with total capitalization of $1.5 billion. A $3.5-billion joint venture petrochemical project unveiled last summer should be continued if it makes economic sense for both sides but it should be junked if the deal was conditioned on continued full diplomatic recognition.

So, once the gestures of punitive retaliation are over, Taiwan needs to emphasize what it does best: working efficiently to build a sound, dynamic economy at home and trade and invest wisely abroad.

If there is any truth to the saying that out of adversity comes new opportunities, then the timing is perfect.

The ruling Kuomintang Party is desperately in need of reform, including rooting out blatant corruption and severing gangland ties. The main opposition Democratic Progressive Party needs to screw its head on straight on a number of issues. But together there is the brainpower to counter China’s diplomatic squeeze-play strategy.