Study on Handgun Permit Laws

* Scott Harris (“To Build a Better America, Pack Heat,” Jan. 9) was misinformed and cited numerous incorrect facts when he attacked a study on gun control laws that I have written with David Mustard. We found that allowing law-abiding citizens to carry concealed handguns deters criminals and reduces violent crime, with murder rates falling by at least 8%. The percentage drops were largest in the most urban, most crime-prone counties, and women benefited more than men did from carrying a concealed handgun.

His column stated that the study was publicized “before [the results] were subjected to peer review.” In fact, the paper appeared in the January 1997 Journal of Legal Studies, the most cited peer-reviewed law and economics journal in the economics profession. The paper was accepted months before media stories started discussing the study in August.

I take offense at Franklin Zimring’s claim that our study represents “shabby social science.” Our research examined crime rates in all 3,054 counties in the U.S. over a period of 16 years. The largest previous gun control study examined only 170 cities within one single year. Not only is this the first gun control study to account for changes in arrest and conviction rates and changes in prison sentence lengths, but our findings control for the most comprehensive set of demographic measures used in any previous study on crime as well as changes in unemployment, income, poverty, state waiting periods for buying guns, and enhanced criminal penalties for using guns in the commission of a crime.

JOHN R. LOTT JR.

The John M. Olin Law and Economics Fellow, School of Law

University of Chicago