In El Salvador, Hungry Voters Spell Danger for Ruling Party

Rosalinda watched disdainfully as some of her fellow street vendors hung red, white and blue balloons and crepe-paper streamers for Mayor Mario Valiente’s visit to this capital’s deteriorating downtown.

“He’s campaigning for reelection, so he’ll come down here and hug all the drunks and kiss the sweaty market ladies,” said the clothing merchant, who asked that her last name not be used. “But when you need something and go down to City Hall, no one will see you.”

Analysts here say such sentiments convey desgaste, the erosion of an incumbent’s support.

Polls indicate that the extreme right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance, known as Arena, is suffering desgaste in spades--and that the party’s domination of Salvadoran politics is likely to deteriorate after Sunday’s midterm election for mayors and congress.

With 210 of the country’s 262 city halls and 39 of the 84 congressional seats and the presidency under Arena control, the party is being blamed for all of the country’s ills--from persistent poverty, joblessness and street crime to inefficient garbage collection.

Arena leaders acknowledge that their party will probably lose 20 to 30 city halls. Those losses could include the capital, according to a January opinion poll that showed the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front--guerrillas turned politicians--three points ahead of Arena, with half of those questioned undecided.

February surveys by the University of Central America and the Technological University, both based in San Salvador, also showed the front--which now has 21 seats--leading in congressional races.

“They have manipulated the polls because these entities are linked to the left,” said Rene Figueroa, a member of Arena’s governing board.

But independent analysts said that while the opposition is not likely to take over Arena’s dominant position, largely because of the left’s disorganization and division, the right-wing party should be prepared for considerable losses.

“After the peace agreement was signed [in 1992], expectations were incredibly high,” political analyst Luis Cardenal said. “In the last two elections, candidates have made promises that were difficult to keep. This will be a vote of punishment.”

Many of those expectations and promises involved better living conditions after the 12-year civil war that claimed 75,000 lives and eroded real wages by about one-third.

Arena presidents reduced double-digit inflation and reactivated the economy with 6% to 7% annual growth--until last year, when the economy expanded just 3%, barely enough to keep up with population growth.

“People are voting with their stomachs because their stomachs are empty,” said Gregorio Rosa Chavez, deputy archbishop of San Salvador.

A fifth of participants in a recent survey by the Technological University said they were unemployed, and half said someone in their immediate family was unemployed. Further, 23% blamed the country’s problems on corruption, followed by lack of will (21%) and government incompetence (20%).

Street vendor Rosalinda said her disillusionment is rooted in corruption. She reported to City Hall that people claiming to represent the vendors--known as directors--were selling “permits” for stands on downtown sidewalks. The next day the permit sellers threatened to drive her out.

As for the women hanging balloons, they smiled sheepishly when asked if they would vote for Valiente.

“Don’t think this means that we support him,” one said.

“We’re just doing this because the directors made us.”

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El Salvador’s Economy

Population living in poverty: 60%

Inflation: 7.4%

Economic growth: 3%

Per capita GDP growth: 0.4%

Note: Figures are for 1996

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PRICE CHECK

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1992 1996 Pound of rice 32 40 Pound of beans 25 64

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