Forecaster Sees Rising Number of Hurricanes

A leading forecaster Friday warned of more frequent and far more devastating major hurricanes threatening the U.S. coastline in the years ahead.

Colorado State University researcher William Gray, whose forecasts are widely watched barometers of the Atlantic hurricane season, said conditions are ripe for an increased number of dangerous storms in the years ahead.

“I believe we are entering a new era; we’re going to see more tropical cyclones. This is natural,” Gray said, dismissing claims that global warming has fueled a recent increase in the number and severity of Atlantic hurricanes.

If Gray’s predictions of 11 named storms for the 1997 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season hold true, the past three years will be the most active on record, he said at a national hurricane conference.

Several factors that spawn hurricanes have come together in recent years, including warmer than normal temperatures in the northern Atlantic and a shift in prevailing trade winds.

“What we are talking about are the blockbuster storms that come in every decade or so that tear things apart,” he said. “This country has to face up to the occasional major storm coming into a major metropolitan area.”

If a storm like the September 1900 hurricane that devastated Galveston, Texas, and killed more than 5,000 people were to strike today, it would cause up to $100 billion in damage to the heavily industrialized Galveston-Houston area, he said.