Hong Kong’s Glass: Half Full, Half Empty?

Might not a little sliver of sunlight be permitted to invade the dark clouds of East-West relations and brighten our day? After all, North Korea has now ended its long and ill-advised diplomatic holdout from vital talks with the United States, China and South Korea. The goal of said talks is to bring a final, formal end to the Korean War and ease all that roiling tension on the Korean Peninsula. And in Hong Kong, West not only has been meeting East but was even, on Monday at least, being courteous enough to hand over to the People’s Republic of China the glorious keys to this British territory--and to wish the territory’s new boss, Tung Chee-hwa, the best of luck. True, these two events scarcely make for a cascade in world affairs optimism; even so, each alone is a lot better than the proverbial poke in the eye.

And now that Hong Kong is reverting to Chinese sovereignty, it is vital that we in the West and those in Beijing allow Tung and his team a modicum of goodwill to let them get on with the task at hand. Should Beijing’s stewardship of Hong Kong prove to be sensitive, adept and well-intentioned, the result will be a colossal diplomatic triumph for China. Conversely, if Beijing fumbles this historic chance to show that it is a skilled player in the big league of nations, all of us--from the president of the United States to the lowliest newspaper columnist--will have ample opportunity to criticize, castigate and condemn. But why rush to judgment on this special occasion?

I find it curious that no one you talk to these days is neutral about Hong Kong’s fate. Take two friends of mine--one a billionaire developer who now lives in Hong Kong, the other a man who has spent key years of his professional life in Asia but until recently worked in Washington at a high level for the Clinton administration. Both are intelligent, have integrity and work like the demonically possessed.

The former U.S. official worries that even if China’s intentions are honorable, its aptitude for this historic challenge is limited; and even though Tung is a decent guy, he is in over his head: “I do think he has misplayed his hand. Hey, he doesn’t have to be Thomas Jefferson to have shown a bit more sensitivity and independence from his bosses. He’s been egregiously backing Beijing in some instances when he didn’t have to; he will someday soon have to tell Beijing, “Look, don’t shut down this newspaper just because it ran a critical editorial, don’t lock up [local democratic leader] Martin Lee just because he’s marching around; and tell the governor of Guangdong province [in southern coastal China, near Hong Kong] to get his grubby hands off the economy, stop the corruption and influence peddling that goes on in China from infecting Hong Kong.”

He’s not betting on Hong Kong: “Tung and Beijing have every interest in making it work, but the problem is, they’ve shown every inclination to screw it up. There won’t be anything dramatic this July. The question is whether they’ll strangle Hong Kong over the next couple of years. Beijing must give Tung a chance to chart a path separate from the mainland. It’s not at all clear to me that the Chinese in Beijing have that kind of finesse.”

A different perspective, at once pessimistic and optimistic, comes from my Hong Kong billionaire developer who has many connections, both business and personal, in America. An ethnic Chinese, he is less critical of America than he is of Britain.

“[Departed British Gov. Chris] Patten has systematically laid time bombs to make things difficult for the new government. He has been sniping at our chief executive designate Mr. C.H. Tung at every turn. Incredibly, Patten has achieved all this while convincing the U.S. that he is right. Americans are indeed people of high values and principles, but they can be gullible in foreign affairs. If the British really meant well for Hong Kong, they would have given us democracy during the [1966-69] Cultural Revolution, which created far greater consternation here.

“So who,” he went on, “really cares for the people of Hong Kong? More so the Americans than the British. Yet both Britain and the U.S. want to shield us from China!” He feels that China will become the next century’s economic juggernaut, eclipsing all rivals as it takes its responsible place on center stage: “As far as our future is concerned, I have more faith in China than in Britain or the U.S.”

There you have it--two views that couldn’t be more different. Where do I decamp? I am convinced that the leaders of China are serious in their commitment to raise the living standards of the Chinese people and that they fully appreciate how important Hong Kong will prove in that effort. Indeed, without Hong Kong, that goal is virtually impossible. So Beijing will assign their best people to this account. Their best people--and I have met many of them--are very good indeed. China will fail only if its thugs and unthinking ideologues get control. I don’t think they will. China can’t afford it. The West looks at Hong Kong and worries about its future. I look at Hong Kong and think of China’s. If China does that, too, it will work out well enough.