Despite Economic Blues, Middle Class Makes Political Noise

The “bubble economy” that created it has burst, but Thailand’s middle class is steadily wresting more political power from the established bigwigs: the military, the bureaucracy and shady business tycoons. Last week, the middle class again forced out a government it considered inept and corrupt, but Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh’s resignation will not suffice. The economic crisis has reinforced the urgency of changing not just the government, but also the political system.

Many middle-class people slid back into apathy after they ousted a pro-military government in 1992 and put Thailand on the path of democratic reform. But they have been reawakened by a pummeled currency and stock market, business collapses, soaring unemployment and rising consumer prices. The Thai middle class is obsessed with consumption and accustomed to prosperity. Now it is forced to “buy Thai” instead of Calvin Klein, sell sandwiches instead of stocks, and eat noodle soup instead of Big Macs.

Added pressure for political change comes from Thailand’s greater exposure to countries and international institutions that worry not only about the impact of its economic crisis domestically but also its “contagion” effect. The International Monetary Fund arranged a $17.2-billion bailout package for Thailand in August.

The reforms demanded by the IMF are bitter medicine for many Thai politicians because they will weaken cronyism, corruption and patronage, the roots of economic mismanagement and inefficiency but also of political power in the country.

The push for political change was already under way in Thailand before the economy slid. In May 1992, in the first middle-class-led uprising in Thai history, protesters ousted a government that was backed by soldiers who opened fire on them. Since then, the middle class has set the political agenda and put the old-style politicians and generals on the defensive. Chavalit lasted only 11 months; the previous two post-’92 governments also collapsed amid allegations of corruption and ineptitude.

Middle-class hopes ride on a new constitution approved in September. It is designed to halt vote-buying and corruption, attract better people to government and strengthen protection of human and civil rights. Chavalit and other politicians initially opposed the constitution because it threatened their careers. But they relented for fear of a violent uprising. Thousands of business people supporting the draft rallied on Silom Road, Bangkok’s main business thoroughfare. Thousands returned to Silom Road last month to demand that Chavalit resign for economic bungling; it was the biggest middle-class demonstration since 1992.

Many of the demonstrators had previously ignored politics because there were plenty of profits to go around even after the politicians took their cuts. The gross domestic product annually grew, on average, 9.8% from 1987 to 1995. But this year, the economy may contract. The baht’s free fall--it has fallen about 40% since it was unpegged from the dollar in July--provides Thais with a daily graph of how the government’s bungling has worsened their plight. They now see politics and business as intertwined, and believe political change is the only way to restart the economy.

“It’s not just Chavalit. They [politicians] are of low education and shortsighted, the whole group,” said a demonstrator, Nam Ruangvuthi. He lost his job at a finance firm and has a son who just graduated but cannot find work. “We will change everything, the government, the Senate, everything,” he said.

The IMF-mandated reforms address many of the same problems that the new constitution does, which is why Chavalit’s government had so much trouble carrying them out. Last month, both the finance minister and the official overseeing the rescue of 58 suspended finance companies quit, citing political interference with their work. Decisions on the finance companies have been stalled because politicians want to protect their stakes in them.

It’s not just the middle class who are more politically active. Community groups are defending their environments. Labor unions are protesting the loss of jobs. Peasants are pressing demands over land rights. Championing all these groups are the news media, which are spreading a Western-style liberal middle-class ethos and have become Thailand’s guardian of democracy.

But in their economic desperation, many business and middle-class people have slipped backward, politically. They sought extra-parliamentary means to oust Chavalit, establish a caretaker government and hold a new election. They asked Prem Tinsulanonda, a key advisor to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, to intervene and gathered signatures to petition the king himself. Prem suggested the formation of a “national government” that would include people besides elected MPs. Business people then asked Prem to head such a government. The constitutional monarch is supposed to be above politics and, as his advisor, Prem is bound by the constitution to be politically neutral.

In the end, the new government evolved from parliamentary procedures and the new prime minister is an elected MP. But in seeking a short-term solution, the “pro-democracy” activists endangered constitutional reforms and risked the long-term goal of more participatory democracy. If respected outsiders are always called in to save the day, what happens to public faith in elected representatives and the parliamentary system? Many Thais have forgotten that they won their demand that only an elected MP can become prime minister, and that the new constitution enshrines their demand.

Furthermore, if enabling legislation is rushed through so an election can be held quickly, it could be flawed. The constitution creates an independent Election Commission to keep the government bureaucracy from manipulating voting. The commission must be given several months to prepare for the election.

Finally, impatience has allowed the most dangerous outsider, the military, to be a player again. The military has attempted 17 coups in Thailand’s 6 1/2 decades as a constitutional monarchy. Its influence plummeted after its humiliation in 1992.

Upon taking office, Chavalit, a former army chief, wooed the military to try to shore up his political power. Generals resumed expounding their views on political and economic affairs. But in a sign of the times, Army Chief Gen. Chettha Thannajaro pressed Chavalit to back the new constitution and put better people in economic posts. He then blocked Chavalit’s attempt to declare a state of emergency to silence the demonstrators; the people, Chettha said, have the right to express their opinions. The military’s recommendation that Chavalit resign may have been crucial to his decision to do so.

Because the military has sided with reform, Thais have not opposed its reemergence from the barracks. They may later regret this.*