Diversity Without Polarization : As O.C. economy changes, care is needed to minimize disparities

A host of sponsoring organizations deserve credit for their support for a new study with the intriguing title “Orange County: The Fate of a Post Suburban Paradise.” Joel Kotkin, an expert on the Southern California economy, has offered both a detailed picture of the present and warnings for the future.

Kotkin looked at the “big picture,” comparing the county’s ethnic makeup, economy and trends with those elsewhere. His conclusion is that Orange County “will likely constitute the model” for communities that have escaped the shadows of nearby big cities to develop into places where people live, work and shop.

If too many people elsewhere in America have a portrait of Orange County frozen in time--white, native-born, conservative--Kotkin takes note of the new reality. The county now is 40% minority, largely Latino and Asian, many of them immigrants. It is likely to continue growing more diverse.

The report--sponsored by the Orange County Business Council, the Orange County Human Relations Commission, the United Way, the Hispanic and Korean Chambers of Commerce and Chapman University, and funded by the James Irvine Foundation--issues a valid warning. It is that care must be taken to avoid a county split between the wealthy along the coast and in South County and the poor in central core areas such as Santa Ana, Anaheim and Westminster. Blue-collar workers have found jobs in the county in the past, but as they have become largely Latino and Asian, their salaries have lagged behind those of whites.

Kotkin points out that Orange County employers, in a time of low unemployment, need skilled workers no matter where they live. And he notes a national survey several years ago that found that job growth in metropolitan areas was greatest where income disparities between city residents and suburbanites were smallest.

The report expresses a proper measure of “cautious optimism” that businesses will realize their need for minority workers, and the central county’s “core cities” will realize their need for investment and jobs that business can bring. The new challenges, though daunting, suggest an exciting future if well managed. What is special about this study is that it gives people in Orange County a snapshot of the long view--who they are and how their changing community is breaking fresh ground on the national scene.