Quack Attack!

As if tailored to the Clinton era, the mantra for television executives trying to build their own bridge to the 21st century has become, “It’s the programming, stupid.”

That may be the clearest message to emerge as the end of the television season nears--a year in which as many breakthrough shows came from distribution-challenged outlets like the WB network and cable’s Comedy Central (the homes of “Dawson’s Creek” and “South Park,” respectively) as ABC, NBC and CBS.

With about two-thirds of U.S. homes now wired for cable, the average viewer has nearly four dozen viewing options and watches armed with a remote control that can quickly zap to any one of them.

Though the major networks still possess a significant advantage because they are seen in virtually all homes on better-established channels, this year proves that the disparity between channels 2 and 52 has narrowed--especially if the latter offers something that captures the public’s fancy.

Perhaps nothing has demonstrated that theory better than “South Park,” the foul-mouthed animated series that has launched a million T-shirts and put Comedy Central on the radar for millions who had barely heard of the channel.

“There’s certain events in history that have brought cable to newer and newer heights: the debut of MTV, the Gulf War, [coverage of] O.J. Simpson and now ‘South Park,’ ” said Alan Berger, executive vice president at talent agency International Creative Management.

In similar fashion, “Dawson’s Creek,” which premiered on the WB in January, rapidly became television’s most-watched program among teenage girls, joining “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” and “7th Heaven” as series on that upstart network to develop a strong following.

Most recently, UPN’s “Love Boat: The Next Wave” kicked sand in the face of “Push,” a new ABC series about young athletes in training, earning the latter a quick hook. Whether “Love Boat” sustains that performance, for UPN--overshadowed much of this season by WB, including the loss of several key affiliated stations--its launch indicates that the opportunity exists to find viewers with the right formula.

“What it really tells you is that distribution is becoming increasingly less important and content is becoming increasingly important,” said recently installed UPN President Dean Valentine, calling “fragmentation”--the term often used to explain shrinking network ratings due to more channels--”just another word for nothing left to watch.”

Like cable channels, WB and UPN are handicapped relative to the major networks, airing on weak UHF stations in much of the country. Comedy Central is worse off, available on cable systems reaching only about half of U.S. households.

Yet these networks have shown they pose credible threats to the once-dominant networks, as did the USA network when 10 million people tuned in its remake of “Moby Dick” starring Patrick Stewart--the biggest audience ever for a cable movie, outrating many programs on broadcast stations.

“For cable, both ‘South Park’ and ‘Moby Dick’ represent milestones,” said Comedy Central President Doug Herzog. “This is the first time things have broken through to this extent.”

The major networks, meanwhile, have helped fuel the perception that their hit-making monopoly is over by generating few of their own new standouts, two exceptions being Fox’s media darling “Ally McBeal” and ABC’s “Dharma & Greg.”

NBC’s second-year comedy “Just Shoot Me” has blossomed into an audience favorite since moving to Thursdays, but the “Must-See” credentials of “Veronica’s Closet” remain in doubt based on the viewers it loses in the prime real-estate slot between “Seinfeld” and “ER.”

ABC’s “The Wonderful World of Disney” and its midseason comedy “Two Guys, a Girl and a Pizza Place” have been lesser bright spots, while CBS came through the fall without any new hits, enjoying unlikely success since January with two revivals, “Candid Camera” and “Kids Say the Darndest Things.”

“I think the networks that are talking to a specific audience have an advantage over the major networks today. We have a credibility with those viewers,” said Jamie Kellner, chief executive at the WB, whose core has been teens and young adults.

“When we put on a program that’s in our audience’s interest, they show up like they would [if it were on] NBC or ABC. . . . [People] still turn there more quickly and more easily than they do other networks, but look how Fox has whittled it down. In five years we’ll have whittled it down too.”

Children, teenagers and younger adults are less apt to differentiate between networks and cable, a factor that bodes ill for broadcasters enjoying any sort of favored-nation status as those groups get older. Nickelodeon, for example, is the No. 1 viewing option among kids.

“Younger viewers, having grown up with cable as they have . . . are very comfortable with searching out new things on cable,” Comedy Central’s Herzog noted.

Still, UPN’s Valentine maintains that while courting a narrow audience works for cable--which also receives money from subscriber fees--it doesn’t make sense for broadcasters, who rely solely on advertising and must try to reach the widest possible audience.

“Copying the cable networks and their ability to target [a smaller audience] is a ruinous strategy for the broadcast networks,” he said.

So far, advertisers have continued to spend a disproportionate amount of money to buy time on the major networks because of that unique ability to reach a mass audience, such as the 30 million people who watch “Seinfeld” or “ER” in an average week. With network ratings declining, however, some question at what point the networks will begin to lose that advantage.

“That’s the question this year: How much money runs to cable?” noted one senior television executive. The networks will begin selling advertising time for next season in May, after announcing their new fall lineups.

Another issue yet to be resolved is the rate at which major networks will keep losing audience as competitors nip at their heels--a process that TV movie producer Gerry Abrams has likened to “being pecked to death by ducks.”

Cable executives concede that their recent successes have “raised the bar” in terms of what’s possible but acknowledge that they still face a formidable challenge in terms of replicating such success.

While USA Networks Entertainment President Rod Perth said he hopes to offer more events on the order of “Moby Dick,” he added, “I also recognize that there’s still a huge degree of difficulty in terms of marketing when you are locked in to Channel 41.”