A Split Decision on Y2K

When it comes to understanding how well the federal government is prepared for the year 2000 computer glitch, it helps to view John Koskinen and Stephen Horn in good cop/bad cop roles.

Horn, a Republican congressman from Long Beach, chairs the House subcommittee on government management, information and technology. He’s the bad cop, saying that the forecast “is a gloomy one” as he released a set of low Y2K readiness grades for federal agencies. Horn delivers his points dripping with ridicule, giving the U.S. Agency for International Development, for example, a dunce-of-the-year award for buying a new computer system that was not Y2K-compliant.

By now, most of us know that a computer system that is Y2K-compliant reads years as four digits (2000) and not as two digits (00), which could be read by a computer as 1900.

Koskinen’s the one offering you a cup of coffee. He’s anything but alarming as the chairman of the President’s Council on Year 2000 Conversion. But because he has specialized in crisis management, large-scale rescues and salvaging of everything from bankrupt firms to scandal-plagued pension funds, his mere presence in the Y2K matter is a sign that serious problems do exist.

So, when you hear Horn’s portents of doom and Koskinen’s lofty assurances, remember their roles and listen closely to both.

Horn has given a D to the government as a whole, a D-minus to the Defense Department and Fs to the departments of State, Energy, and Health and Human Services, as well as the U.S. Agency for International Development. That’s consistent with the finding of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget that those agencies and the Transportation Department are “not making adequate progress.” Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater said Thursday that he expects compliance testing in his department to be complete by next summer.

Koskinen, meanwhile, emphasizes advancements. In November 1997, for example, only 27% of the federal government’s critical computer systems had been checked and declared Y2K-ready. The Office of Management and Budget now estimates the figure at 61%. Koskinen said he expects 85% to 90% readiness by March, putting the federal government far ahead of the private sector. We’ll see.

The worst-case Y2K scenarios involve delays in Medicare and other federal benefits and disruptions in surface transportation and airport traffic control. Some big-city electric grids could crash, as one did in San Francisco last week due to an unrelated cause.

The most optimistic observers of the Y2K situation predict minor problems that could be remedied in a few days. But the nation can’t afford to take that risk and must do its best to be prepared. The federal government is a huge player in confronting this matter, and it has much to do in the next 373 days that lead us to D-Day on Y2K.