Do Not Fear Democracy in Taiwan

Immediately after Taiwan’s legislative, mayoral and city council elections earlier this month, the island’s politically charged citizenry began intensively discussing the presidential elections of March 2000.

Will Taipei’s outgoing mayor, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Chen Shui-bian, run for president? If so, will Chen call for a referendum on declaring independence from China? What would be the implications for U.S. foreign policy of an elected Taiwan president declaring, on the basis of a referendum, the abolition of the Republic of China on Taiwan and its replacement by a new, independent Republic of Taiwan? Certainly the U.S could not easily dismiss such an outcome, given its long-standing commitment to promoting democracy and self-determination worldwide. Yet equally certainly, the cost to the U.S. of Chinese antagonism would be exceptionally high.

Countless American China specialists inside and outside of government cling to the view that Taiwan democracy is a destabilizing factor in world politics. They sometimes go so far as to lament the passing of the days when dictators ruled, dictators who emigrated from the mainland after 1945 and who, therefore, might be willing to strike a deal with Beijing that would eliminate the Taiwan irritant.

Naturally, Beijing, too, fears Taiwan democracy. Repeatedly, the Chinese media criticize direct presidential elections as implying that Taiwan is not a province but a country. They also complain that a democracy in which even pro-independence personages like Chen can run for office brings uncertain factors to cross-strait relations.

But these fears are quite misplaced. Taiwan’s democratization is in fact a force for stability in cross-strait relations that helps ensure that the island’s leaders will not take rash actions that threaten regional security. In the past three years, Taiwan’s democracy has matured to the point that a genuine consensus has developed around the notion that it would be dangerous and even foolish to declare independence. Why? Because China would almost certainly attack, and even if the U.S. and Japan were to come to Taiwan’s aid, the costs of war would be enormous.

In Taiwan today, there is a much greater appreciation of the fact that a democratic government’s most fundamental responsibility is to ensure its people’s comprehensive security. This means suspending the feel-good issue of asserting ethnic pride in the face of cold, uncompromising threats from Beijing. It means suspending the quest for independence until conditions are more conducive. And it is precisely democratization, including increasing media freedoms that facilitate debate, that allows this consensus to develop and take root.

Before democratization, many Taiwanese saw themselves as repressed by alien carpetbaggers from the mainland who were corrupt and incompetent. Certainly the ruling Kuomintang presided over an economic miracle and had begun to loosen its tight grip on politics. But still the KMT might sell Taiwan out to Beijing at any time, and for that reason the Democratic Progressive Party continued to assert a vigorous anti-Chinese identity well into the mid-1990s. They appeared willing to take great risks in angering Beijing and endangering the Taiwan people’s comprehensive security in exchange for public attention.

Even today, the party’s official platform calls for an eventual declaration of independence. But the radical liberalization of the media now forces independence supporters to debate objectively among themselves and with KMT supporters just how wise such a course would be. During this debate, a complicated, convoluted affair that turned white-hot in the mid-1990s, a new consensus eventually emerged, evident in this month’s elections. For the good of Taiwan’s comprehensive security, it is best to play down ethnic divisions and not pursue Taiwan’s independence, even while continuing efforts to raise the Republic of China’s profile on the world stage.

Even if Chen Shui-bian does announce a run for the presidency in the coming months, he is unlikely to play the independence card. Already, his party suffers from perceptions that it takes too many risks and is unpredictable.

The days of high-stakes brinkmanship in Taiwan politics are over. The people speak almost daily through polls, letters to the editor and radio and television call-in shows, and they express a consistent desire for maintaining the status quo. No Taiwan politician can afford to ignore this sentiment. No one in Washington or Beijing need fear Taiwan democracy.