Fateful Period for Mideast

After 31 months in power, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fractious right-center coalition government has fallen, the victim of its own internal conflicts and the growing dissatisfaction of Israelis of all political persuasions with its uncertain and divisive policies. National elections are now likely in the spring, providing a chance for a moderate coalition not dependent on the hobbling support of far-right religious and nationalistic factions.

How Israelis vote could depend in good measure on Palestinian actions between now and election day. Netanyahu’s razor-thin victory over Shimon Peres in 1996 can be traced to a series of preelection terrorist bombings by Palestinian foes of the peace process that raised fresh security fears among Israelis. Anti-peace forces know that a right-wing Israeli government that is opposed to accommodation with the Palestinians better suits their purposes than a government that is open to responsible and pragmatic compromises.

The best thing the Palestinian Authority can do over the next three or four months is to show patience, avoid provocative comments, including talking about declaring statehood next May, and do its utmost to prevent anti-Israeli violence. A few more months of waiting, after decades of paralyzing hostility, won’t derail the peace process.

The traditional competition for leadership between the Labor and Likud parties could be challenged in the next election by the creation of a new centrist party that supports the retiring chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, for prime minister. Barred from political activity while still in uniform, Shahak has nonetheless become a hugely popular figure, a kind of Israeli Colin Powell about whose views people know next to nothing but who commands a high degree of trust and respect. Shahak is seen as a moderate with strong credibility on security issues. Right now he stands higher in the polls than the Likud’s Netanyahu or the uncharismatic Ehud Barak, the Labor Party leader and a former general. Another likely candidate is former Finance Minister Dan Meridor.

Most Israelis identify themselves with the broad political center, and most continue to support the Oslo accords and last fall’s Wye River agreement, which the Netanyahu government refuses to carry out. The basis exists for a welcome and majority-supported change of political direction in Israel.